Real‐time prediction of the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of >100 MeV solar energetic proton events

A new model for predicting the occurrence of >100 MeV solar energetic proton (SEP) events and the first hours of the >100 MeV integral proton flux is presented. This model uses a novel approach based on the lag correlation between strong positive derivatives of X-ray flux and proton flux. The new model has been validated with data from January 1994 to September 2013, obtaining a probability of detection of all >100 MeV SEP events of 80.85%, a false alarm ratio of 29.62%, and an average warning time of 1 h and 6 min. The model identifies the associated flare and active region. Currently, there is no other automatic empirical or physics-based system able to predict SEP events of energies in the interval of 100 MeV to ~430 MeV (lower GLE cutoff according to Clem and Dorman (2000)). This paper also proposes the combined use of the new prediction model and the existing one for predicting >10 MeV SEP events. The combined SEP prediction models have been developed to improve mitigation of adverse effects on near-Earth and interplanetary missions.