Detecting Rising Wildfire Risks for South East England

Vikki Thompson ^{1, 2}

D. M. Mitchell ¹

Nathanael Melia ^{3, 4}

Hannah Bloomfield ^{1, 5}

Nick Dunstone ⁶

GILLIAN KAY ⁶

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School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK |

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt Netherlands |

Climate Prescience Limited Rotorua New Zealand |

⁴

Climate Change Research Institute Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand |

⁵

School of Engineering University of Newcastle Newcastle‐upon‐Tyne UK |

⁶

Met Office Hadley Centre Met Office Exeter UK |

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2025-01-09

Wiley

Journal: Climate Resilience and Sustainability

SJR: —

CiteScore: —

Impact factor: —

ISSN: 26924587

DOI: 10.1002/cli2.70002

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Abstract

ABSTRACT

In July 2022 southeast England experienced a record breaking heatwave and unprecedented wildfires in urban areas. We investigate fire weather trends since 1960 in southeast England using a large ensemble of initialised climate models. Record smashing temperatures coincided with widespread fires in London, and we find that while wildfire risk was high, it was not record breaking. We show that between the 1960s and 2010s annual maximum daily fire weather has increased. The proportion of summertime days with high and very high fire risk has increased—while medium and low risk days have become less common. These findings show the need to mitigate against the increasing risk of wildfire caused by climate change.