Analysis of Rainfall Trend and Its Pattern in Uttarakhand Using Appropriate Probability Distributive Functions

Uttarakhand is currently experiencing heavy rains, and it drew our attention to carry out a statistical analysis over the 50 years of rainfall data to predict the rainfall pattern of the region for contributing a speck towards the interest of the country, which may be useful for stakeholders, policymakers, economists, agriculturists, environmentalists, and the Department of Natural Disaster Management. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the probability distribution of rainfall in Uttarakhand, from 1971 to 2020, using the most appropriate distributive functions out of 18 different probability distributions, which would be selected from the statistical approach. The main objective of this study is to identify the most suitable probability distribution for monthly rainfall in Uttarakhand. Our results indicated that the Generalized Extreme Value distribution was the best fit for 3 out of 12 months (Feb, Jul, Aug), followed by the Normal distribution, which was the best fit for 2 out of 12 months (Apr, Sep) and the Weibull (2P) distribution was the best fit for 2 out of 12 months (May, Nov). Further, month-wise rainfall has been predicted from 2030 to 2070 years for each decade to study the change in rainfall patterns using past rainfall records.