Land Cover Implications on Ecosystem Service Delivery: a Multi-Scenario Study of Trade-offs and Synergies in River Basins

Land cover change scenarios hold far-reaching implications for ecosystem services (ES), highlighting the need for understanding the trade-offs and synergies underlying the provision of multiple ES. The insufficient knowledge of the mechanisms governing the relationships among multiple ES, along with the lack of information on trade-offs among ES under different scenarios, restricts the ability to provide effective information for decision-makers. To fill this gap, we assessed the interplay among six ES: climate regulation, habitat creating and maintaining species diversity, cultivated crops, regulation of the chemical condition of freshwaters by living processes (water quality), water yield, and control of erosion rates, within three river basins in northwest Portugal. We employed the InVEST to map the state of these ES in 2018, along with three projected land cover scenarios for 2050: business-as-usual, farmland return, and afforestation. Our findings indicated the business-as-usual scenario could lead to detrimental impacts on climate regulation, habitat creating and maintaining species diversity, and control of erosion rates. In contrast, the farmland return scenario showed less drastic decreases in habitat-creating and maintaining species diversity and control of erosion rates compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Afforestation emerged as the most favorable scenario, with a 13.6% increase in climate regulation and a 1.3% improvement in habitat-creating and maintaining species diversity. Cluster analysis allowed the identification of six levels of spatial synergies between ES, with regions of high forest cover showing extreme synergy and populated areas exhibiting the lowest levels of synergy, suggesting that a well-planned combination of these practices could yield substantial benefits for future ES provision. These results provide crucial insights for decision-makers to enhance ecosystem management and promote societal well-being. Importantly, our findings underscore the significance of considering multiple ES and their interrelationships in land use planning to achieve sustainable development objectives.