A historical seismic event revisited: stochastic ground motion modeling of the 1859 Erzurum earthquake and validations with structural damage

Erzurum is one of the major cities in Türkiye with high seismic hazard, having a well-documented history of destructive earthquakes. The June 2, 1859 earthquake (Mw = 6.1) caused severe damage to the city, but no ground motion records exist because it occurred before the instrumental measurement period. This study aims to simulate and validate a simulated ground motion record for this historical earthquake using the stochastic finite-fault method. In this approach, fault geometry, stress drop, crustal properties, and local site effects were incorporated to generate realistic acceleration time histories. The simulated record was validated through comparisons with empirical ground motion models and historical damage reports. For validation, detailed finite element models of Erzurum Ulu Mosque and Murat Pasha Mosque were developed and calibrated using Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) data, and nonlinear time-history analyses were performed to assess the consistency of observed and simulated damage patterns. The findings demonstrate that stochastic ground motion simulations can provide reliable insights into historical seismic events, offering a robust framework for reassessing earthquakes without instrumental records and contributing to the understanding of the seismic performance of masonry heritage structures.