Can carbon emission trading pilot policy drive industrial structure low-carbon restructuring: new evidence from China

Industrial structure low-carbon restructuring is an essential channel to accelerate China’s economic growth and fulfilling carbon emission reduction goals. Whether carbon emission trading pilot policy, as an influential carbon reduction instrument, fosters industrial structure low-carbon restructuring is of major significance to green economic development. This paper empirically investigates the shock of the carbon emission trading pilot policy on industrial structure low-carbon restructuring using the differences-in-differences (DID) and synthetic control method (SCM). Statistics reveal that sectors with low carbon productivity, such as electricity, steam, and hot water production and supply, ferrous metal smelting and pressing, etc., and sectors with high carbon productivity, such as electrical equipment and machinery, electronics and telecommunication equipment, etc. The industrial structure did not develop a stable trend of change before the 12th Five-Year Plan, but a stable trend of low-carbon restructuring emerged after such a period. Carbon emission trading pilot policy significantly facilitates industrial structural low-carbon restructuring. Carbon emission trading pilot policy inhibits energy-intensive industries in the industrial sector significantly, which promotes industrial structure low-carbon restructuring. Therefore, policymakers need to develop a nationwide carbon emission trading market that includes more industries to guide production factors to industrial sectors with high carbon productivity for industrial restructuring and dual carbon goals.