Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services Values in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China in the Context of National Water Network Project Construction

Investigating the ecological impact of land use change in the context of the construction of national water network project is crucial, as it is imperative for achieving the sustainable development goals of the national water network and guaranteeing regional ecological stability. Using the Danjiangkou Reservoir Area (DRA), China as the study area, this paper first examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of natural landscape patterns and ecosystem service values (ESV) in the DRA from 2000 to 2018 and then investigated the spatial clustering characteristics of the ESV using spatial statistical analysis tools. Finally, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the natural landscape and future changes in the ESV of the DRA from 2018 to 2028 under four different development scenarios: business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and shoreline protection (SP). The results show that: during 2000–2018, the construction of water facilities had a significant impact on regional land use/land cover (LULC) change, with a 24 830 ha increase in watershed area. ESV exhibited an increasing trend, with a significant and growing spatial clustering effect. The transformation of farmland to water bodies led to accelerated ESV growth, while the transformation of forest land to farmland led to a decrease in the ESV. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had the strongest effect on the ESV. ESV exhibited a continuous increase from 2018 to 2028 under all the simulation scenarios. The EP scenario had the greatest increase in ESV, while the ED scenario had the smallest increase. The findings suggest that projected land use patterns under different scenarios have varied impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and that the management and planning of the DRA should balance social, economic, ecological, and security benefits.nomic, ecological, and security benefits.