Analytic Methods in Accident Research

, volume 35 , pages 100219

Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances

Chenzhu Wang ¹

Fei Chen ¹

Yu Zhang ²

Shuyi Wang ¹

Bin Yu ¹

Jianding Cheng ¹

Hide authors affiliations Show authors affiliations: 2 affiliations

School of Transportation, Southeast University, 2 Sipailou, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210096, China |

Zachry Department of Civil Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, 3136 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3136, United States |

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2022-09-01

Elsevier

Analytic Methods in Accident Research

scimago Q1

wos Q1

SJR: 6.076

CiteScore: 23.3

Impact factor: 12.6

ISSN: 22136657, 22136665

DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219

Copy DOI

Safety Research

Transportation

Abstract

• Differences in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes are explored over a three-year period. • Statistically significant temporal instability was observed in both rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and the implications are evaluated. • Several targeted countermeasures were provided for preventing rear-end and non-rear-end crashes. Rear-end crashes have become a serious global issue, with increasing injuries and fatalities accounting for massive property loss. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation in the influence of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and the change in impact degree over time. Using the three-year crash data of the Beijing–Shanghai Expressway from 2017 to 2019, the heterogeneity and temporal stability of contributing factors affecting rear-end and non-rear-end crashes were investigated through a group of random parameter logit models with unobserved heterogeneity in means and variances. Then, the temporal stability and transferability of the models were evaluated using likelihood ratio tests. Moreover, the marginal effects were calculated to explore the temporal stability and potential heterogeneity of the contributing variables from year to year. Using four possible injury severity outcomes, namely, fatal injury, severe injury, minor injury, and no injury, a wide variety of possible factors significantly affecting injury severity outcomes including environmental, temporal, spatial, traffic, speed, geometric, and sight distance characteristics were analyzed. Considerable differences were observed in the rear-end and non-rear-end crashes, and the contributing factors indicated statistically significant temporal instability in both crashes over the three-year period. This study can be of value in promoting highway safety aimed at rear-end and non-rear-end crashes and developing suitable safety countermeasures.

Found

Top-30

Journals

Publishers

	5 10 15 20 25 30
Elsevier	Elsevier, 28, 49.12% Elsevier 28 publications, 49.12%
Taylor & Francis	Taylor & Francis, 14, 24.56% Taylor & Francis 14 publications, 24.56%
MDPI	MDPI, 4, 7.02% MDPI 4 publications, 7.02%
Hindawi Limited	Hindawi Limited, 3, 5.26% Hindawi Limited 3 publications, 5.26%
Canadian Science Publishing	Canadian Science Publishing, 2, 3.51% Canadian Science Publishing 2 publications, 3.51%
SAGE	SAGE, 2, 3.51% SAGE 2 publications, 3.51%
Scientific Research Publishing	Scientific Research Publishing, 1, 1.75% Scientific Research Publishing 1 publication, 1.75%
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)	American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 1, 1.75% American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 1 publication, 1.75%
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), 1, 1.75% Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 1 publication, 1.75%
Springer Nature	Springer Nature, 1, 1.75% Springer Nature 1 publication, 1.75%
	5 10 15 20 25 30

We do not take into account publications without a DOI.
Statistics recalculated weekly.

Are you a researcher?

Create a profile to get free access to personal recommendations for colleagues and new articles.

Metrics

Cite this

GOST |

Cite this

GOST Copy

Wang C. et al. Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances // Analytic Methods in Accident Research. 2022. Vol. 35. p. 100219.

GOST all authors (up to 50) Copy

Wang C., Chen F., Zhang Yu., Wang S., Yu B., Cheng J. Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances // Analytic Methods in Accident Research. 2022. Vol. 35. p. 100219.

RIS |

Cite this

RIS Copy

TY - JOUR

DO - 10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219

UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219

TI - Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances

T2 - Analytic Methods in Accident Research

AU - Wang, Chenzhu

AU - Chen, Fei

AU - Zhang, Yu

AU - Wang, Shuyi

AU - Yu, Bin

AU - Cheng, Jianding

PY - 2022

DA - 2022/09/01

PB - Elsevier

SP - 100219

VL - 35

SN - 2213-6657

SN - 2213-6665

ER -

BibTex

Cite this

BibTex (up to 50 authors) Copy

@article{2022_Wang,

author = {Chenzhu Wang and Fei Chen and Yu Zhang and Shuyi Wang and Bin Yu and Jianding Cheng},

title = {Temporal stability of factors affecting injury severity in rear-end and non-rear-end crashes: A random parameter approach with heterogeneity in means and variances},

journal = {Analytic Methods in Accident Research},

year = {2022},

volume = {35},

publisher = {Elsevier},

month = {sep},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219},

pages = {100219},

doi = {10.1016/j.amar.2022.100219}

}

Publisher

Elsevier

Journal

Analytic Methods in Accident Research

scimago Q1

wos Q1

SJR

6.076

CiteScore

23.3

Impact factor

12.6

ISSN

22136657 (Print)

22136665