Allocation of carbon emission quotas for China's provincial public buildings based on principles of equity and efficiency

In accordance with China's commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement, it is important to establish a fair and effective carbon emission allocation mechanism; this would help to achieve China's 2030 “carbon peak” target. Here, the fixed cost allocation model (FCAM) was used to allocate carbon emission quotas to public buildings in China in 2030, based on the principles of equity and efficiency. By comparing these provincial allocation results with those obtained using zero-sum data envelope analysis (ZSG-DEA), optimal carbon emission quotas were proposed for the public building sectors of thirty Chinese provinces. The results revealed large differences, with the public buildings of Guangdong having the highest quota (11.39%) and those of Xinjiang having the lowest (0.08%). Additionally, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning were revealed to be under high pressure with regard to the reduction of emissions from their public buildings; Heilongjiang was predicted to require the highest reduction, exhibiting a need to reduce 34 million tons of emissions. These findings will help provide new ideas for relevant policy makers to formulate fair and effective carbon allowance allocation plans. • We propose a carbon emission allocation plan for public buildings in China in 2030. • Proposal of optimal carbon emission allowances using fixed cost allocation model. • Provinces with higher input-output efficiency, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu have higher allocations. • Proposes a low-carbon development path for China in 2030 by region.