Mobile network traffic analysis based on probability-informed machine learning approach

The paper proposes an approach to the joint use of statistical and machine learning (ML) models to solve the problems of the precise reconstruction of historical events, real-time detection of ongoing incidents, and the prediction of future quality of service-related occurrences for prospective development of the modern networks. For forecasting, a regression version of the deep Gaussian mixture model (DGMM) is introduced. First, the preliminary clustering based on the finite normal mixtures is performed. This information is then used as an input for some supervised ML algorithm. It is the basic concept of the probability-informed ML approach in the field of telecommunications networks. Using the real-world datasets from a Portuguese mobile operator as well as public cellular traffic data, the article compares this approach with methods such as random forests, support vector machine regression, gradient boosting and LSTM. Vector autoregression, informed by the parameters of the generalized gamma (GG) distribution, which has also been successfully used to reconstruct past traffic patterns, is also used as a benchmark. We demonstrate that DGMM-based regression is 6.82−22.8 times faster than LSTM for the dataset. Moreover, DGMM-based regression can achieve better results for the most important traffic characteristics (average and total traffic, the number of users). For metrics MAPE and RMSE, it surpasses the results of statistical methods up to 46.7% (RMSE) and 91.5% (MAPE) (median increases are 28.0% and 80.1%, respectively), as well as for ML methods up to 13.0% (RMSE) and 35.7% (MAPE) (median increases are 0.39% and 2.5%, respectively). Thus, the use of a probability-informed approach for telecommunication data seems optimal for the computational speed and accuracy trade-off. Also, we introduce a novel statistical hypothesis testing method based on GG distribution for detecting suspected anomalies in traffic.