Study on the pattern and driving factors of water scarcity risk transfer networks in China from the perspective of transfer value—Based on complex network methods

The transfer value of risk, measured by the asymmetric impact of virtual water flows, is vital for regions addressing the global water crisis, achieving Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6), and implementing sustainable water management. This study uses multi-regional input-output models, complex network analysis, and the Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) to construct and analyze China's water scarcity risk transfer network. Findings show frequent but weakly connected risk transfers between provinces, with significant spatial clustering. The network displays both random and hierarchical features, with clustered development being prominent. Reciprocal cooperation and extensive connections are crucial to avoiding the “prisoner's dilemma” in water conservation. High levels of “dual circulation” and water resource utilization enhance risk transfer value, while lower industrialization and digitization levels facilitate value reception. The efficiency of water resource use is key in shaping high-risk value pathways, underscoring the need for risk management at both source and sink ends. This study offers a scientific basis for improving water resource management, ensuring national water security, and redefining risk flow patterns.