Open Access
A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action
Qianying Lin
1
,
Shi Zhao
2
,
Daozhou Gao
3
,
Yijun Lou
4, 5, 6
,
Shu-Hsin Yang
7
,
Salihu S. Musa
4, 5, 6
,
Maggie Haitian Wang
2
,
Yongli Cai
8
,
Weiming Wang
8
,
Lin Lee A. Smith
9
,
Daihai He
4, 5, 6
4
Department of Applied Mathematics
6
Hong Kong China
|
Publication type: Journal Article
Publication date: 2020-04-01
scimago Q1
wos Q1
SJR: 1.323
CiteScore: 12.6
Impact factor: 4.3
ISSN: 12019712, 18783511
PubMed ID:
32145465
General Medicine
Microbiology (medical)
Infectious Diseases
Abstract
Abstract
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.Found
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Lin Q. et al. A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action // International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020. Vol. 93. pp. 211-216.
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Lin Q., Zhao S., Gao D., Lou Y., Yang S., Musa S. S., Wang M. H., Cai Y., Wang W., Lee A. Smith L., He D. A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action // International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020. Vol. 93. pp. 211-216.
Cite this
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TY - JOUR
DO - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
TI - A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action
T2 - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
AU - Lin, Qianying
AU - Zhao, Shi
AU - Gao, Daozhou
AU - Lou, Yijun
AU - Yang, Shu-Hsin
AU - Musa, Salihu S.
AU - Wang, Maggie Haitian
AU - Cai, Yongli
AU - Wang, Weiming
AU - Lee A. Smith, Lin
AU - He, Daihai
PY - 2020
DA - 2020/04/01
PB - Elsevier
SP - 211-216
VL - 93
PMID - 32145465
SN - 1201-9712
SN - 1878-3511
ER -
Cite this
BibTex (up to 50 authors)
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@article{2020_Lin,
author = {Qianying Lin and Shi Zhao and Daozhou Gao and Yijun Lou and Shu-Hsin Yang and Salihu S. Musa and Maggie Haitian Wang and Yongli Cai and Weiming Wang and Lin Lee A. Smith and Daihai He},
title = {A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action},
journal = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases},
year = {2020},
volume = {93},
publisher = {Elsevier},
month = {apr},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058},
pages = {211--216},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058}
}