Will regular COVID-19 control measures impact the spatial distribution of two-wheeled vehicle theft?: A case study of NH city, China

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted daily routines and crime dynamics. While a substantial body of research has examined the effects of pandemic-related restrictions on crime, the impact of regular COVID-19 control measures on the occurrence and spatial distribution of criminal incidents in areas unaffected by large-scale COVID-19 outbreaks remains unexplored. Focusing on NH city, China, the present study applies spatial point pattern test (SPPT) and multinomial logistic regression to investigate changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of two-wheeled vehicle thefts, including e-bikes, normal bikes, and motorcycles, as well as the environmental factors leading to these changes. The findings are as follows: (1) Two-wheeled vehicle thefts fall drastically at the onset of COVID-19 and then maintain at a low level with slight fluctuations throughout the period of restriction orders. Monthly speaking, the spatial patterns of two-wheeled vehicle theft show periodicity in both pre-pandemic and pandemic contexts. Furthermore, on the daily basis, the spatial patterns of two-wheeled vehicle theft align closely with commuting behaviors in both periods. (2) SPPT results indicate that a significant alteration in the spatial patterns of overall two-wheeled vehicle theft and e-bike theft during the pandemic. Although the entire study area witnesses a notable decrease in both types of thefts, certain spatial units experience a marked increase. (3) The present study further compares the spatial factors influencing two-wheeled vehicle thefts across the two periods. During the pandemic, areas with social organizations, government agencies, parks and squares witness a significant reduction in two-wheeled vehicle thefts, whereas areas with dense tutoring institutions and residential areas with a high density of male residents aged 20–49 experience a significant uptick in theft incidents. The present study provides insights into the impacts of regular COVID-19 control measures, an approach to social management, on the spatial patterns of crime. The findings may inform strategies for optimizing crime prevention efforts and the allocation of local police resources.