A dynamic model to hindcast historical material stocks and flows from current stocks: Application to the buildings of 1159 administrative regions of the EU27, 1970–2050

Assessing material stocks and flows with high spatiotemporal resolution can promote circularity in the building sector. Understanding historic material stocks and flows is essential to capture material use dynamics. However, traditional modeling approaches are time and data intensive and difficult to upscale. We present a method for estimating past and future stocks and flows on a large scale with high spatial resolution. This methodology is demonstrated by hindcasting and forecasting building stocks and flows of 19 materials for 27 European countries at a NUTS3 spatial resolution for 1970–2050. Our model recreates historical stocks ranging from 55 Mt in Malta and 13,600 Mt in Germany in 1970, increasing to 97 Mt in Malta and 21,900 Mt in Germany in 2019. The results align with previous findings, where available. The model can be applied beyond buildings to other contexts in the built environment, enhancing our understanding of the material economy.