Life expectancy across countries: Convergence, divergence and fluctuations

We document the evolution of life expectancies around the world during 1960-2015 using graphical analysis, statistical decomposition of survival gains by age-groups and by measuring the contribution of each age-group to changes in the global and regional distributions of life expectancy at birth. We emphasize three findings. First, enormous gains in early-life survival have led to unconditional convergence in life expectancy at birth across countries while late-life longevity has diverged. Gains have been higher for females than males. Secondly, global and regional survival gains among the elderly, though smaller than among the young, have strongly influenced changes in country rankings of life expectancy at birth with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa. Country rankings for late-life survival have changed relatively more than for younger ages. Third, the divergence in survival gains among the elderly is related to disparities in healthcare access, driven in part by within- and between-country income inequality. While providing fresh insight into the uneven pace of health changes during the past half century, these results also highlight how policy can address the socio-economic and demographic consequences of aging.