volume 5 issue 4 pages 1605-1619

Variability of Clinical Metrics in Small Population Communities Drive Perceived Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance Data Quality: Ontario, Canada-Wide Study

Nada Hegazy 1, 2, 3, 4
K. Ken Peng 5, 6
Patrick M Daoust 3, 4
Elisabeth Mercier 1, 2, 3, 4
Élisabeth Mercier 3, 4
Nathan Thomas Ramsay 1, 2, 3, 4
Md. Pervez Kabir 1, 2, 3, 4
Tram Bich Nguyen 3, 4
Emma Tomalty 1, 2, 3, 4
Felix Addo 1, 2, 3, 4
Chandler Hayying Wong 1, 2, 3, 4
Wan Shen 1, 2, 3, 4
Joan Hu 5, 6, 7, 8
Charmaine Dean 7, 9, 10, 11
Charmaine B Dean 10, 11
Minqing Ivy Yang 12, 13, 14, 15
M Ivy Yang 14, 15
Hadi Dhiyebi 11, 16
Elizabeth A. Edwards 12, 13, 14, 15
Mark R. Servos 11, 16
Gustavo Ybazeta 17
Marc Habash 18, 19, 20, 21
M.B Habash 20, 21
Lawrence Goodridge 21, 22
Art F.Y. Poon 23, 24
Eric J Arts 24, 25
Stephen Brown 26, 27
Sarah Jane Payne 27, 28
Andrea Kirkwood 29, 30, 31, 32
Andrea E. Kirkwood 31, 32
Denina B D Simmons 29, 30, 31, 32
Jean-Paul Desaulniers 29, 30, 31, 32
Banu Ormeci 33, 34, 35, 36
Banu Örmeci 35, 36
Christopher Kyle 37, 38, 39, 40
David Bulir 41, 42, 43, 44
Trevor Charles 9, 11, 16, 45
T. C. Charles 11, 16
R.Michael L McKay 46, 47, 48, 49
K. A. Gilbride 50, 51, 52, 53
Kimberley A Gilbride 52, 53
Claire Jocelyn Oswald 51, 53, 54, 55
Claire Oswald 53, 55
Hui Peng 13, 15, 56, 57
Christopher DeGroot 58, 59
Elizabeth Renouf 1, 2, 3, 4
Robert Delatolla 3, 4
1
 
Department of Civil Engineering
2
 
University of Ottawa
3
 
Department of Civil Engineering, Ottawa, Canada
5
 
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Burnaby, Canada
7
 
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science
10
 
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Waterloo, Canada
12
 
BioZone, Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry
13
 
University of Toronto
14
 
BioZone, Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, Toronto, Canada
16
 
Department of Biology, Waterloo, Canada
17
 
Health Sciences North Research Institute, Sudbury, Canada
18
 
School of Environmental Sciences
20
 
School of Environmental Sciences, Guelph, Canada
22
 
Canadian Research Institute for Food Safety, Department of Food Science, Guelph, Canada
23
 
Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, London, Canada
25
 
Department of Microbiology and Immunology, London, Canada
26
 
Department of Chemistry, Kingston, Canada
28
 
Department of Civil Engineering, Kingston, Canada
29
 
Faculty of science
30
 
Ontario Tech University
31
 
Faculty of Science, Oshawa, Canada
33
 
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
34
 
Carleton University
35
 
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ottawa, Canada
37
 
Department of Forensic Science
39
 
Department of Forensic Science, Peterborough, Canada
41
 
Department of Chemical Engineering
43
 
Department of Chemical Engineering, Hamilton, Canada
45
 
Department of Biology
46
 
Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, School of the Environment
48
 
Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, School of the Environment, Windsor, Canada
50
 
Department of Chemistry and Biology
52
 
Department of Chemistry and Biology, Toronto, Canada
54
 
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies
55
 
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Toronto, Canada
56
 
DEPARTMENT OF CHEMISTRY
57
 
Department of Chemistry, Toronto, Canada
58
 
Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering, London, Canada
Publication typeJournal Article
Publication date2025-03-07
scimago Q1
wos Q1
SJR1.268
CiteScore7.1
Impact factor4.3
ISSN26900637
Abstract
The emergence of COVID-19 in Canada has led to over 4.9 million cases and 59,000 deaths by May 2024. Traditional clinical surveillance metrics (hospital admissions and clinical laboratory-positive cases) were complemented with wastewater and environmental monitoring (WEM) to monitor SARS-CoV-2 incidence. However, challenges in public health integration of WEM persist due to perceived limitations of WEM data quality, potentially driving inconsistent correlations variability and lead times. This study investigates how factors like population size, WEM measurement magnitude, site isolation status, hospital admissions, and clinical laboratory-positive cases affect WEM data correlations and variability in Ontario. The analysis uncovers a direct relationship between clinical surveillance data and the population size of the surveyed sewersheds, while WEM measurement magnitude was not directly impacted by population size. Higher variability in clinical surveillance data was observed in smaller sewersheds, likely reducing correlation strength for inferring COVID-19 incidence. Population size significantly influenced correlation quality, with thresholds identified at ∼66,000 inhabitants for strong WEM-hospital admissions correlations and ∼68,000 inhabitants for WEM-laboratory-positive cases during waned vaccination periods in Ontario (the Omicron BA.1 wave). During significant vaccination immunization (the Omicron BA.2 wave), these thresholds increased to ∼187,000 and 238,000, respectively. These findings highlight the benefit of WEM for strategic public health monitoring and interventions, especially in smaller communities. This study provides insights for enhancing public health decision making and disease monitoring through WEM, applicable to COVID-19 and potentially other diseases.
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Hegazy N. et al. Variability of Clinical Metrics in Small Population Communities Drive Perceived Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance Data Quality: Ontario, Canada-Wide Study // ACS ES&T Water. 2025. Vol. 5. No. 4. pp. 1605-1619.
GOST all authors (up to 50) Copy
Hegazy N. et al. Variability of Clinical Metrics in Small Population Communities Drive Perceived Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance Data Quality: Ontario, Canada-Wide Study // ACS ES&T Water. 2025. Vol. 5. No. 4. pp. 1605-1619.
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@article{2025_Hegazy,
author = {Nada Hegazy and K. Ken Peng and Patrick M Daoust and Lakshmi Pisharody and Elisabeth Mercier and Élisabeth Mercier and Nathan Thomas Ramsay and Md. Pervez Kabir and Tram Bich Nguyen and Emma Tomalty and Felix Addo and Chandler Hayying Wong and Wan Shen and Joan Hu and Charmaine Dean and Charmaine B Dean and Minqing Ivy Yang and M Ivy Yang and Hadi Dhiyebi and Elizabeth A. Edwards and Mark R. Servos and Gustavo Ybazeta and Marc Habash and M.B Habash and Lawrence Goodridge and Art F.Y. Poon and Eric J Arts and Stephen Brown and Sarah Jane Payne and Andrea Kirkwood and Andrea E. Kirkwood and Denina B D Simmons and Jean-Paul Desaulniers and Banu Ormeci and Banu Örmeci and Christopher Kyle and David Bulir and Trevor Charles and T. C. Charles and R.Michael L McKay and K. A. Gilbride and Kimberley A Gilbride and Claire Jocelyn Oswald and Claire Oswald and Hui Peng and Christopher DeGroot and Elizabeth Renouf and Robert Delatolla and others},
title = {Variability of Clinical Metrics in Small Population Communities Drive Perceived Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance Data Quality: Ontario, Canada-Wide Study},
journal = {ACS ES&T Water},
year = {2025},
volume = {5},
publisher = {American Chemical Society (ACS)},
month = {mar},
url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsestwater.4c00958},
number = {4},
pages = {1605--1619},
doi = {10.1021/acsestwater.4c00958}
}
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Hegazy, Nada, et al. “Variability of Clinical Metrics in Small Population Communities Drive Perceived Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance Data Quality: Ontario, Canada-Wide Study.” ACS ES&T Water, vol. 5, no. 4, Mar. 2025, pp. 1605-1619. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsestwater.4c00958.