Water Resources Research, volume 61, issue 1

Temperature Overshoot Would Have Lasting Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources

Publication typeJournal Article
Publication date2025-01-04
scimago Q1
wos Q1
SJR1.574
CiteScore8.8
Impact factor4.6
ISSN00431397, 19447973
Abstract

Models of climate change impacts could be missing significant risks to hydrologic and water infrastructure systems through a shared feature: the idea that temperatures rise monotonically. By contrast, temperature overshoot pathways describe non‐monotonic warming trajectories, in which global temperatures first exceed a given target before declining to that target. Risks from overshoot pathways are qualitatively different from risks associated with monotonic warming trajectories, and are likely underestimated in current research and policy. Models suggest overshoot may be almost unavoidable if the more stringent Paris Agreement target limiting warming to 1.5°C over preindustrial levels is to be met by 2100. While overshoot has been relatively widely described in the climate literature, the impacts of overshoot on individual system characteristics have not. We suggest that failure to consider disparities between monotonic and overshoot warming impacts on hydrology and water resources presents particular risks due to divergent adaptation needs. Processes with decadal hysteresis are especially vulnerable. These include glacial contributions to streamflow; hydrologic consequences of vegetation change; altered groundwater; higher water use for fossil fuel combustion and carbon dioxide removal; and water infrastructure and policy that depends on climate conditions. We argue that risks of overshoot cannot be fully captured in current integrated assessment models and that overshoot needs to be specifically evaluated to adequately characterize risk in the water system. We consider how current modeling tools could be adapted to evaluate overshoot consequences, but also recognize that decisions must be made even without perfect knowledge.

Schleussner C., Ganti G., Lejeune Q., Zhu B., Pfleiderer P., Prütz R., Ciais P., Frölicher T.L., Fuss S., Gasser T., Gidden M.J., Kropf C.M., Lacroix F., Lamboll R., Martyr R., et. al.
Nature scimago Q1 wos Q1
2024-10-09 citations by CoLab: 15 Abstract  
AbstractGlobal emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2–5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.
Carroll R.W., Niswonger R.G., Ulrich C., Varadharajan C., Siirila-Woodburn E.R., Williams K.H.
2024-05-23 citations by CoLab: 11 Abstract  
AbstractGroundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.
Marshall A.M., Abatzoglou J.T., Rahimi S., Lettenmaier D.P., Hall A.
2024-04-29 citations by CoLab: 4 Abstract  
The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.
Rahimi S., Huang L., Norris J., Hall A., Goldenson N., Krantz W., Bass B., Thackeray C., Lin H., Chen D., Dennis E., Collins E., Lebo Z.J., Slinskey E., Graves S., et. al.
Geoscientific Model Development scimago Q1 wos Q1 Open Access
2024-03-20 citations by CoLab: 7 Abstract  
Abstract. Predicting future climate change over a region of complex terrain, such as the western United States (US), remains challenging due to the low resolution of global climate models (GCMs). Yet the climate extremes of recent years in this region, such as floods, wildfires, and drought, are likely to intensify further as climate warms, underscoring the need for high-quality and high-resolution predictions. Here, we present an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations over the western US from 1980–2100 at 9 km grid spacing, driven by 16 latest-generation GCMs. This dataset is titled the Western US Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3). We describe the challenges of producing WUS-D3, including GCM selection and technical issues, and we evaluate the simulations' realism by comparing historical results to temperature and precipitation observations. The future downscaled climate change signals are shaped in physically credible ways by the regional model's more realistic coastlines and topography. (1) The mean warming signals are heavily influenced by more realistic snowpack. (2) Mean precipitation changes are often consistent with wetting on the windward side of mountain complexes, as warmer, moister air masses are uplifted orographically during precipitation events. (3) There are large fractional precipitation increases on the lee side of mountain complexes, leading to potentially significant changes in water resources and ecology in these arid landscapes. (4) Increases in precipitation extremes are generally larger than in the GCMs, driven by locally intensified atmospheric updrafts tied to sharper, more realistic gradients in topography. (5) Changes in temperature extremes are different from what is expected by a shift in mean temperature and are shaped by local atmospheric dynamics and land surface feedbacks. Because of its high resolution, comprehensiveness, and representation of relevant physical processes, this dataset presents a unique opportunity to evaluate societally relevant future changes in western US climate.
Berghuijs W.R., Collenteur R.A., Jasechko S., Jaramillo F., Luijendijk E., Moeck C., van der Velde Y., Allen S.T.
Nature Climate Change scimago Q1 wos Q1
2024-03-12 citations by CoLab: 13 Abstract  
Sustainable groundwater use relies on adequate rates of groundwater recharge, which are expected to change with climate change. However, climate impacts on recharge remain uncertain due to a paucity of measurements of recharge trends globally. Here we leverage the relationship between climatic aridity and long-term recharge measurements at 5,237 locations globally to identify regions where recharge is most sensitive to changes in climatic aridity. Recharge is most sensitive to climate changes in regions where potential evapotranspiration slightly exceeds precipitation, meaning even modest aridification can substantially decrease groundwater recharge. Future climate-induced recharge changes are expected to be dominated by precipitation changes, whereby changes in groundwater recharge will be amplified relative to precipitation changes. Recharge is more sensitive to changes in aridity than global hydrological models suggest. Consequently, the effects of climatic changes on groundwater replenishment and their impacts on the sustainability of groundwater use by humans and ecosystems probably exceed previous predictions. How groundwater recharge changes with global warming is not well constrained. Here, the authors use an empirical relationship to show that groundwater recharge is more sensitive to aridity changes than expected, implying a strong response of water resources to climate change.
Zhang S., Hao X., Zhao Z., Zhang J., Fan X., Li X.
Earth's Future scimago Q1 wos Q1 Open Access
2023-11-21 citations by CoLab: 14 Abstract  
AbstractClimate change and the resulting natural vegetation succession can alter vegetation productivity. However, the mechanisms underlying future productivity changes under the two influences remain unclear. Here, we used the comprehensive sequence classification system to simulate changes in global potential natural vegetation under different climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5), and combined the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model with random forest to assess the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to climate change and vegetation succession from 2020 to 2100. Except for SSP126, terrestrial NPP in 2100 decreased by 0.86, 2.39, and 2.54 Pg C·a−1 versus 2020 under SSP2‐4.5, SSP5‐8.5, and SSP3‐7.0, respectively. Forest was the primary contributor to terrestrial NPP changes. The total forest area was projected to increase under all scenarios, with SSP2‐4.5 showing the largest increase (358.57 × 104 km2). However, expanding forest regions exhibited a relatively low mean NPP, while stable regions demonstrated a declining pattern. Consequently, forest NPP increased under SSP1‐2.6 but decreased by 4.03, 3.43, and 0.82 Pg C·a−1 in 2100 versus 2020 under SSP5‐8.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP2‐4.5, respectively. In comparison, grassland and desert exerted minor influence on terrestrial NPP changes, their total NPP decreased only under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario. The grassland area decreased, but the mean NPP increased, whereas the desert area expanded, resulting in consistent changes in both total and mean NPP. Our results analyzed the effects of climate change and vegetation distribution under its influence on the change of NPP, which can deepen our understanding of their relationship.
Al‐Yaari A., Condom T., Junquas C., Rabatel A., Ramseyer V., Sicart J., Masiokas M., Cauvy‐Fraunié S., Dangles O.
Earth's Future scimago Q1 wos Q1 Open Access
2023-10-24 citations by CoLab: 5 Abstract  
AbstractThe availability of freshwater from glaciers and snowmelt is of vital importance for people and ecosystems in the context of global climate change. Here, we focus on 25 glaciers located in different climates and latitudes and investigate their recent (1958–2020) and future projected trends (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) in monthly precipitation (Pr), maximum and minimum temperatures, ice mass loss, and their relationships with cloud properties. The study sites are located in Temperate Europe (France), the Inner (Ecuador, Venezuela, and Colombia) and Outer Tropics (Bolivia and Peru), Central America (Mexico), tropical Southeast Asia (Indonesia), Equatorial Africa (Uganda), and the Southern dry and Patagonian Andes (Chile and Argentina). The climate analyses are based on TerraClimate data (Monthly Climate and Climatic Water Balance for Global Terrestrial Surfaces) and 28 CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) climate simulations. Our findings reveal that, extrapolating current glacier volume change trends, almost half of the studied glaciers are likely to vanish (95%–100% volume loss) by 2050, with widespread warming and drying trends since 1958. A shift toward wetter conditions at Pico Humboldt (Venezuela) and Martial Este (Argentina) identifiable in the CORDEX simulation will very likely not have a limiting impact on glacier mass loss owing to increasing temperatures, which will raise the elevation of the rain/snow limit. Our results provide useful new information to better understand glacier‐climate relationships and future scenarios dominated by ice mass loss trends across the globe. These findings suggest serious consequences for future water availability, which exacerbate the vulnerability of local populations and ecosystems.
Weiss S.A., Marshall A.M., Hayes K.R., Nicolsky D.J., Buma B., Lucash M.S.
Landscape Ecology scimago Q1 wos Q1
2023-07-26 citations by CoLab: 3 Abstract  
In interior Alaska, increasing wildfire activity associated with climate change is projected to continue, potentially altering regional forest composition. Conifers are emblematic of boreal forest; however, greater frequency and severity of wildfires has been found to favor broadleaf-deciduous species in numerous studies. This study examines potential shifts in forest type in interior Alaska and how shifts may be impacted by recurring wildfires under future climate change. A spatially-explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, was used to simulate forest succession and wildfire over a 380,400-hectare landscape under historic and future (RCP 8.5) climate. Wildfire was modeled using the SCRPPLE fire extension and vegetation growth, belowground carbon, hydrologic, and permafrost dynamics were modeled with the DGS succession extension. The relative importance of drivers of forest type change away from black spruce was quantified using random forest models for areas on the landscape experiencing different numbers of wildfires. Greater frequencies of fire activity were associated with shifts in conifer-dominant areas to broadleaf-deciduous, which climate change accelerated. Vegetation transitions were most strongly influenced by percent tree mortality from the most recent wildfire. Starting deciduous fraction and proximity of mature black spruce to a site pre-fire were also influential, indicating pre-fire composition and context modified the effect of vegetation shifts. These results underscore how shifts in forest type may occur in a nonlinear manner in this region as the landscape experiences pressure from climate change and forests are subject to complex interactions between wildfire, climate, belowground processes, and the arrangement of forest communities.
Currier W.R., Wood A.W., Mizukami N., Nijssen B., Hamman J.J., Gutmann E.D.
Journal of Hydrometeorology scimago Q1 wos Q2
2023-07-01 citations by CoLab: 5 Abstract  
Abstract Vegetation parameters for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model were recently updated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Previous work showed that these MODIS-based parameters improved VIC evapotranspiration simulations when compared to eddy covariance observations. Due to the importance of evapotranspiration within the Colorado River basin, this study provided a basin-by-basin calibration of VIC soil parameters with updated MODIS-based vegetation parameters to improve streamflow simulations. Interestingly, while both configurations had similar historic streamflow performance, end-of-century hydrologic projections, driven by 29 downscaled global climate models under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, differed between the two configurations. The calibrated MODIS-based configuration had an ensemble mean that simulated little change in end-of-century annual streamflow volume (+0.4%) at Lees Ferry, Arizona, relative to the historical period (1960–2005). In contrast, the previous VIC configuration, which is used to inform decisions about future water resources in the Colorado River basin, projected an 11.7% decrease in annual streamflow. Both VIC configurations simulated similar amounts of evapotranspiration in the historical period. However, the MODIS-based VIC configuration did not show as much of an increase in evapotranspiration by the end of the century, primarily within the upper basin’s forested areas. Differences in evapotranspiration projections were the result of the MODIS-based vegetation parameters having lower leaf area index values and less forested area compared to previous vegetation estimates used in recent Colorado River basin hydrologic projections. These results highlight the need to accurately characterize vegetation and better constrain climate sensitivities in hydrologic models. Significance Statement Understanding systemic changes in annual Colorado River basin flows is critical for managing long-term reservoir levels. Single-digit percentage decreases have the potential to degrade the regions’ water supply, hydropower generation, and environmental concerns. Hydrology projections under climate change have largely been based on simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. Updating the model’s vegetation representation based on updated satellite information highlighted the sensitivity of the hydrologic projections to the models’ vegetation representation primarily within forested areas. This updated model did not increase in evapotranspiration by the end of the century as much as previous simulations. This increased the mean and ensemble spread of the projected streamflow changes, emphasizing the need to properly characterize the hydrologic model’s vegetation parameters and better constrain model climate sensitivity.
Costantini M., Colin J., Decharme B.
Earth's Future scimago Q1 wos Q1 Open Access
2023-03-22 citations by CoLab: 7
Noël T., Loukos H., Defrance D., Vrac M., Levavasseur G.
Data in Brief scimago Q3 wos Q3 Open Access
2022-12-01 citations by CoLab: 14 Abstract  
This paper describes the extension of the previously CMIP5 based high-resolution climate projections with additional ones based on the more recent climate projections from the CMIP6 experiment. The downscaling method and data processing are the same but the reference dataset is now the ERA5-Land reanalysis (compared to ERA5 previously) allowing to increase the resolution of the new downscaled projections from 0.25° x 0.25° to 0.1°x 0.1°. The extension comprises 5 climate models and includes 2 surface variables at daily resolution: air temperature and precipitation. Three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are available: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with mitigation policy (SSP1-2.6), an intermediate one (SSP2-4.5), and one without mitigation (SSP5-8.5).
Kim S., Shin J., An S., Kim H., Im N., Xie S., Kug J., Yeh S.
Nature Climate Change scimago Q1 wos Q1
2022-09-01 citations by CoLab: 62 Abstract  
Some climate variables do not show the same response to declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations as before the preceding increase. A comprehensive understanding of this hysteresis effect and its regional patterns is, however, lacking. Here we use an Earth system model with an idealized CO2 removal scenario to show that surface temperature and precipitation exhibit globally widespread irreversible changes over a timespan of centuries. To explore the climate hysteresis and reversibility on a regional scale, we develop a quantification method that visualizes their spatial patterns. Our experiments project that 89% and 58% of the global area experiences irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation, respectively. Strong irreversible response of surface temperature is found in the Southern Ocean, Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean and of precipitation in the tropical Pacific, global monsoon regions and the Himalayas. These global hotspots of irreversible changes can indicate elevated risks of negative impacts on developing countries. For some parts of the climate system, the response to declining CO2 concentrations does not mirror that during the preceding increase. Here the authors quantify this effect for temperature and precipitation, and show that large areas of the world show an asymmetric response to CO2 forcing.
Koshkin A.L., Hatchett B.J., Nolin A.W.
Frontiers in Water scimago Q2 wos Q2 Open Access
2022-08-26 citations by CoLab: 16 PDF Abstract  
Mountain snowpacks provide 53–78% of water used for irrigation, municipalities, and industrial consumption in the western United States. Snowpacks serve as natural reservoirs during the winter months and play an essential role in water storage for human consumption and ecosystem functions. However, wildfires across the West are increasing in severity, size, and frequency, progressively putting snowpacks at risk as they burn further into the seasonal snow zone. Following a fire, snow disappears 4–23 days earlier and melt rates increase by up to 57%. In a high burn severity fire in the Oregon Cascades, the black carbon and charred woody debris shed from burned trees onto the snowpack decreased the snow albedo by 40%. Canopy cover loss causes a 60% increase in solar radiation reaching the snow surface. Together, these effects produce a 200% increase in net shortwave radiation absorbed by the snowpack. This mini-review synthesizes the implications of wildfire for snow hydrology in mountainous watersheds with the primary aim to characterize wildfires' varied influences on the volume and timing of water resources across time scales (daily to decadal), space (plot to watershed) and burn severity (low to high). The increase in the geographical overlap between fire and snow poses unique challenges for managing snow-dominated watersheds and highlights deficiencies in research and operational snow hydrologic modeling, emphasizing the need for additional field and remote-sensing observations and model experiments.
Jurgens B.C., Faulkner K., McMahon P.B., Hunt A.G., Casile G., Young M.B., Belitz K.
2022-07-01 citations by CoLab: 22 PDF Abstract  
The distribution of groundwater age is useful for evaluating the susceptibility and sustainability of groundwater resources. Here, we compute the aquifer-scale cumulative distribution function to characterize the age distribution for 21 Principal Aquifers that account for ~80% of public-supply pumping in the United States. The aquifer-scale cumulative distribution function for each Principal Aquifer was derived from an ensemble of modeled age distributions (~60 samples per aquifer) based on multiple tracers: tritium, tritiogenic helium-3, sulfur hexafluoride, chlorofluorocarbons, carbon-14, and radiogenic helium-4. Nationally, the groundwater is 38% Anthropocene (since 1953), 34% Holocene (75 – 11,800 years ago), and 28% Pleistocene (>11,800 years ago). The Anthropocene fraction ranges from <5 to 100%, indicating a wide range in susceptibility to land-surface contamination. The Pleistocene fraction of groundwater exceeds 50% in 7 eastern aquifers that are predominately confined. The Holocene fraction of groundwater exceeds 50% in 5 western aquifers that are predominately unconfined. The sustainability of pumping from these Principal Aquifers depends on rates of recharge and release of groundwater stored in fine-grained layers. US drinking water aquifers with a large fraction of Anthropocene groundwater are susceptible to land-surface contamination, according to analysis of groundwater age distributions at public-supply wells.
Meyer A.L., Bentley J., Odoulami R.C., Pigot A.L., Trisos C.H.
2022-06-27 citations by CoLab: 26 Abstract  
Temperature overshoot pathways entail exceeding a specified global warming level (e.g. 1.5°C or 2°C) followed by a decline in warming, achieved through anthropogenically enhanced CO 2 removal from the atmosphere. However, risks to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways are poorly described. Here, we explore biodiversity risks from overshoot by synthesizing existing knowledge and quantifying the dynamics of exposure and de-exposure to potentially dangerous temperatures for more than 30 000 species for a 2°C overshoot scenario. Our results suggest that climate risk to biodiversity from temperature overshoot pathways will arrive suddenly, but decrease only gradually. Peak exposure for biodiversity occurs around the same time as peak global warming, but the rate of de-exposure lags behind the temperature decline. While the global overshoot period lasts around 60 years, the duration of elevated exposure of marine and terrestrial biodiversity is substantially longer (around 100 and 130 years, respectively), with some ecological communities never returning to pre-overshoot exposure levels. Key biodiversity impacts may be irreversible and reliance on widespread CO 2 removal to reduce warming poses additional risks to biodiversity through altered land use. Avoiding any temperature overshoot must be a priority for reducing biodiversity risks from climate change, followed by limiting the magnitude and duration of any overshoot. More integrated models that include direct and indirect impacts from overshoot are needed to inform policy. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.
Douville H.
2025-01-30 citations by CoLab: 0 PDF Abstract  
A growing number of scientists are expressing concerns about the inadequacy of climate change policies. Fewer are questionning the dominant climate modelling paradigm and the IPCC’s success to prevent humanity from venturing unprepared into hitherto unknown territories. However, in view of an urgent need to provide readily available data on constraining uncertainty in local and regional climate change impacts in the next few years, there is a debate on the most suitable path to inform both mitigation and adaptation strategies. Examples are given how both common statistical methods and emerging technologies can be readily used to exploit the wealth of existing knowledge to drive adaptation policy. Parsimonious and equitable approaches on constraining uncertainty are promoted that combine various lines of evidence, including model diversity, large ensembles, storylines, and novel statistical methods applied on well-calibrated, global and regional, Earth System simulations, to deliver more reliable climate information. As examplified by the Paris agreement on desirable global warming targets, it is argued that the display of unrealistic ambitions may not be the best way for climate modellers to accomplish their long-term objectives, especially given the growing consensus on climate emergency and the allocated short time for the knowledge to be delivered and applied.
Wrzesiński D., Marsz A.A., Styszyńska A., Perz A.E., Brzezińska W., Sobkowiak L.
Water (Switzerland) scimago Q1 wos Q2 Open Access
2025-01-16 citations by CoLab: 0 PDF Abstract  
On the basis of daily discharges recorded in 140 water gauges located on 96 Polish rivers, the long-term changes of runoff and the number of days with low flows (NDLF) in relation to selected meteorological variables were studied. The analyses were performed for the entire multi-annual period 1951–2020 and two sub-periods: 1951–1988 and 1988–2020 that are before and after climate change. The average values of these hydro-meteorological variables in the two sub-periods were then compared. It was found that after 1988, a statistically significant (p < 0.001) increase in the average air temperatures, ranging from 0.9 to over 1.3 °C, occurred. Similarly, statistically significant changes were determined for evaporation, which increased by about 10–25%. Precipitation did not show such changes—a statistically significant decrease in precipitation (by over 5%) was recorded only in the southern part of the Odra River basin, and in most stations, statistically insignificant increases were recorded. The most complex changes took place in river runoff. After 1988, in most gauges, a decrease in runoff by about 5–15% was detected; in some cases, these decreases were statistically significant. In the south-eastern part of the country, primarily in the catchments of the right tributaries of the Vistula River, an increase in runoff by about 5–10% was detected. However, only in the case of one gauge, these tendencies were statistically significant. Next, in order to determine spatial regularities in long-term changes in the NDLF, the cluster analysis method was used, and the gauges were grouped according to the values of 70 annual NDLF. This resulted in separating three relatively homogenous territorially groups of rivers, demonstrating a clear regional differentiation of NDLF. It was concluded that separation of these three groups of rivers in terms of different long-term changes in NDLF was mainly influenced by climatic conditions.

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