Middle powers in conflict: a comparative analysis of Canadian and Italian military support for Ukraine

This article investigates the motivations underlying Canada and Italy’s military support for Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War, offering a comparative analysis of these two middle powers’ divergent strategic approaches. While both nations are geographically distant from the conflict and do not face an immediate threat from Russia, each has committed military aid to Ukraine, shaped by distinct strategic cultures. Canada’s consistent support is deeply rooted in its Atlanticist and internationalist orientation, reflecting a long-standing alignment with the USA and NATO allies and the safeguard of liberal norms. This stance, largely uncontested within Canadian political and public spheres, serves to uphold international norms and sustain Canada’s international reputation with relatively modest costs. Italy’s response, however, is marked by a more nuanced strategic culture, balancing its Euro-Atlantic commitments with a pacifist tradition and a pragmatic history of engagement with Russia. While populist factions in Italy have at times advocated for a more pro-Russian stance, these pressures are tempered by institutional structures and Italy’s commitment to NATO and the European Union. This study demonstrates how domestic political dynamics and international constraints interact to reinforce prevailing strategic cultures, establishing a path dependency that limits the emergence of alternative perspectives. This comparative analysis illuminates the role of strategic culture in shaping military engagement, emphasising how domestic and international systemic frameworks facilitate or constrain specific behavioural patterns. It highlights, in particular, the deeply embedded institutional commitment to NATO and the role of institutional continuity in navigating the complexities of the geopolitical landscape.