Near-term nanotechnology: the molecular fabrication of nanostructured materials

The remarkably short timescales commonly predicted for achieving full molecular nanotechnology (MNT) are not realistic, as an enormous investment must be made up-front for a distant and ill-defined payoff. The reason is that technology, per se, is not an economic driver; economics instead drives technology. Hence, markets that could motivate the ongoing, incremental development of MNT must be sought. Such markets exist: they fundamentally consist of the molecular assembly of nano structured materials such as semipermeable membranes, catalysts, perfect crystalline fibres, and others. Although in theory atomically precise, such materials have no molecular moving parts and thus will be both easier to build and more robust. Some of these applications (e.g. catalysis), moreover, have huge, mature markets. Once a demand is established, further incremental development of primitive molecular assemblers, or `molecular looms', might then justify the analogies with the explosive development of computer hardware over the last few decades. Finally, the fact that many such applications are likely to be rendered obsolete by full MNT is irrelevant to their interim value as technology drivers.