How does digital economy development drive the evolution of CO2 emissions? Evidence from a novel factor decomposition mechanism

Against the background of the booming expansion of the global digital economy and increasing emphasis on reducing CO2 emissions, this study from the perspective of the transformation of the digital economy applies the generalized Divisia index method to measure the contribution of the driving factors to CO2 emissions in China. From 2007 to 2022, the country’s CO2 emissions increased cumulatively, with a change rate of 80.85%. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions factor became the main drivers contributing to CO2 emissions, with contribution rates of 40.23% and 50.43%, respectively. Meanwhile, the digital economy’s carbon intensity made a negative contribution to CO2 emissions, with a contribution rate of -9.01%, which shows that the expansion of the digital economy is advantageous for lowering CO2 emissions, and this is also verified in the later analysis. In addition, the amount of CO2 emissions changes varies during different periods such as the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans, which is inseparable from realistic factors such as the stage of the digital economy development and the strength of policy support. This study puts forward appropriate policy recommendations, such as vigorously enhancing digital industrialization, continuously enhancing the degree of industrial digitization, and enhancing investment in the field of digital economy.