Transitioning to Low-Carbon Heating: Decision-Making Approach for Cold Communities

Selecting a sustainable heat energy supply system for high-altitude, cold-climatic communities in developing countries is essential for both decision-makers and the scientific community. However, no comprehensive guide or framework exists to address this issue and decarbonize cold communities sustainably. This research aims to fill that gap by identifying and developing a methodology for selecting a suitable heat energy supply system, using Kyrgyzstan as a case study. The approach takes into account renewable energy sources, local conditions, and specific criteria necessary for designing a sustainable energy supply. The paper introduces a decision-making framework based on 17 criteria, covering geographical, environmental, economic, technical, and social aspects, derived from the opinions of over 20 experts. This framework serves as a guide for selecting and designing an appropriate heat energy supply system. Five heat supply options are analyzed in Kyrgyzstan’s high-altitude, cold rural setting to demonstrate the framework's potential. The analysis reveals that centralized district heating is the most suitable solution, scoring 79% for system selection. This methodology is partially or fully transferable to regions or countries with similar climates and local circumstances, offering a valuable resource for the development of sustainable heat energy solutions in cold, high-altitude communities.