A ticking time bomb? The impact of objective class and stratification beliefs on societal conflict perceptions in South Africa

In South Africa, inequality has worsened over the past two decades, leading to the country being recognised as the most unequal society globally. The escalating inequality has sparked social conflicts, threatening the already fragile social cohesion. However, there is a limited understanding of public perceptions regarding these conflicts; it is crucial to comprehend their dynamics. To shed light on this issue, we used the International Social Survey Programme dataset for 2009 and 2019 to investigate the changing factors influencing perceived social conflict (PSC) in South Africa, specifically testing the role of objective class positions and stratification beliefs. Our findings reveal that objective class plays a significant and reinforced role in shaping perceptions of social conflict, aligning with the Marxist notion of a strong link between class position and conflict perceptions through class consciousness. Middle-class imagery does not affect PSC and tolerance for inequality and also exerts diminished influence on PSC. Overall, these results offer valuable insights for policymakers in their efforts to address the pressing issues of class, conflict and inequality. This is particularly true in the aftermath of the July 2021 unrest while South Africa continues to grapple with social instability caused by deep class divisions.