Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Stroke Risk Stratification in Atrial Fibrillation

Current risk stratification tools can limit the optimal implementation of new and emerging therapies for patients with heart rhythm disorders. For example, stroke prevention treatments have outpaced means for stroke risk stratification for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have shown promise for improving various tasks in cardiovascular medicine. Here we explain key concepts in AI that are central to using these technologies for better risk stratification, highlighting one approach particularly well-suited to the task of portable, personalized risk stratification – probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). Probabilistic graphical models can empower physicians to ask and answer a variety of clinical questions, which we demonstrate using a preliminary model of AF-related stroke risk among 1.6 million patients within the University of Utah Health System. This example also highlights the ability of PGMs to combine social determinants of health (SDoH) and other non-traditional variables with standard clinical and demographic ones to improve personalized risk predictions and address risk factor interactions. When combined with electronic health data, these computational technologies hold great promise to empower personalized, explainable, and equitable risk assessment.