Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project
A Di Carlo
1
,
Leonardo Bellino
2
,
Domenico Consoli
3
,
Fabio Mori
4
,
Augusto Zaninelli
5
,
Marzia Baldereschi
1
,
Alessandro Cattarinussi
6
,
Maria Grazia D’Alfonso
4
,
Chiara Gradia
3
,
Bruno Sgherzi
7
,
Giovanni Pracucci
6
,
Benedetta Piccardi
1, 6
,
Biancamaria Polizzi
8
,
Domenico Inzitari
1, 6
1
Institute of Neuroscience, Italian National Research Council, Via Madonna del Piano, 10–50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy
|
2
Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale Toscana Centro, Florence, Italy
|
3
Azienda Sanitaria Provinciale, Vibo Valentia, Italy
|
5
The System Academy, Florence, Italy
|
7
Agenzia Di Tutela Della Salute, Bergamo, Italy
|
8
National Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Italian Ministry of Health, Rome, Italy
|
Publication type: Journal Article
Publication date: 2019-06-06
scimago Q1
wos Q1
SJR: 3.057
CiteScore: 12.6
Impact factor: 7.4
ISSN: 10995129, 15322092
PubMed ID:
31131389
Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Physiology (medical)
Abstract
Aims
To estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a representative sample of the Italian elderly population, projecting figures for Italy and the European Union.
Methods and results
A cross-sectional examination of all subjects aged 65+ years from three general practices in Northern, Central, and Southern Italy started in 2016. Participants were administered a systematic and an opportunistic screening, followed by clinical and electrocardiogram confirmation. The study sample included 6016 subjects. Excluding 235 non-eligible, among the remaining 5781 participation was 78.3%, which left 4528 participants (mean age 74.5 ± 6.8 years, 47.2% men). Prevalence of AF was 7.3% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 6.6–8.1], higher in men and with advancing age (6.6% from systematic plus 0.7% from opportunistic screening). Using prevalence figures, Italian elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼1 081 000 (95% CI 786 000–1 482 000). Considering stable prevalence, this number will increase by 75% to ∼1 892 000 in 2060 (95% CI 1 378 000–2 579 000). European Union elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼7 617 000 (95% CI 5 530 000–10 460 000), increasing by 89% to ∼14 401 000 in 2060 (95% CI 10 489 000–19 647 000). In 2016, subjects aged 80+ years represented 53.5% of cases in Italy and 51.2% in the European Union; in 2060, 69.6% and 65.2%, respectively.
Conclusions
Our findings indicate a high burden of AF in coming decades, especially among the oldest-old, who carry the higher AF-related risk of stroke and medical complications.
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Di Carlo A. et al. Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project // Europace. 2019. Vol. 21. No. 10. pp. 1468-1475.
GOST all authors (up to 50)
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Di Carlo A., Bellino L., Consoli D., Mori F., Zaninelli A., Baldereschi M., Cattarinussi A., D’Alfonso M. G., Gradia C., Sgherzi B., Pracucci G., Piccardi B., Polizzi B., Inzitari D. Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project // Europace. 2019. Vol. 21. No. 10. pp. 1468-1475.
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TY - JOUR
DO - 10.1093/europace/euz141
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/europace/euz141
TI - Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project
T2 - Europace
AU - Di Carlo, A
AU - Bellino, Leonardo
AU - Consoli, Domenico
AU - Mori, Fabio
AU - Zaninelli, Augusto
AU - Baldereschi, Marzia
AU - Cattarinussi, Alessandro
AU - D’Alfonso, Maria Grazia
AU - Gradia, Chiara
AU - Sgherzi, Bruno
AU - Pracucci, Giovanni
AU - Piccardi, Benedetta
AU - Polizzi, Biancamaria
AU - Inzitari, Domenico
PY - 2019
DA - 2019/06/06
PB - Oxford University Press
SP - 1468-1475
IS - 10
VL - 21
PMID - 31131389
SN - 1099-5129
SN - 1532-2092
ER -
Cite this
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@article{2019_Di Carlo,
author = {A Di Carlo and Leonardo Bellino and Domenico Consoli and Fabio Mori and Augusto Zaninelli and Marzia Baldereschi and Alessandro Cattarinussi and Maria Grazia D’Alfonso and Chiara Gradia and Bruno Sgherzi and Giovanni Pracucci and Benedetta Piccardi and Biancamaria Polizzi and Domenico Inzitari},
title = {Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project},
journal = {Europace},
year = {2019},
volume = {21},
publisher = {Oxford University Press},
month = {jun},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/europace/euz141},
number = {10},
pages = {1468--1475},
doi = {10.1093/europace/euz141}
}
Cite this
MLA
Copy
Di Carlo, A., et al. “Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union: the FAI Project.” Europace, vol. 21, no. 10, Jun. 2019, pp. 1468-1475. https://doi.org/10.1093/europace/euz141.