Environment-driven trends in larval abundance predict fishery recruitment in two saltwater basses

Environmental and biological factors influencing fish larvae can drive fishery cohort strength, yet larval abundance is typically a better indicator of spawning biomass. Under a changing ocean, studies that explore the relationships between environmental variables, larval abundance, and fishery recruitment remain valuable areas for ongoing research. We focus on a popular, recreational-only, multispecies saltwater bass fishery (genus Paralabrax) whose population status and recovery potential are uncertain. We resolved Paralabrax spp. larval data to species over a 54-year period (1963–2016) and used species distribution models to (i) generate and test species-specific standardized indices of larval abundance as indicators of adult stock status and fishery recruitment and (ii) evaluate long-term spatiotemporal trends in their population dynamics relative to environmental variables and climate forcing. Contrary to initial hypotheses, species-specific larval abundance predicted future catches, with higher recent larval abundances suggesting potential for fishery recovery. Temperature, zooplankton biomass, and isothermal depth were important predictors of bass larval abundance, indicating these variables could also be valuable for predicting fishery recruitment and anticipating population change. Our findings paint a path forward towards a more ecosystem-based fishery management approach for this important fishery and may serve as a template for data- or assessment-limited fisheries.