How New Dictatorships Begin

This chapter summarizes changes over time in how and why dictatorships arise. Before 2000, the modal dictatorship began with a coup and replaced an older dictatorship. More new dictatorships arose during the 1960s than during other decades. This surge mirrors the large increase in newly independent countries at that time. A second upswing in new dictatorships occurred in the 1990s, when the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia allowed more nations to gain independence. This pattern in the emergence of new dictatorships suggests that newly independent countries may be more susceptible to dictatorial conspirators and interference by foreign interests than countries with longer histories of self-governance. Fewer new dictatorships have arisen since 2000, and most now replace democracies. Military officers stage fewer coups against the governments they have sworn to defend than in the past. Democratic backsliding orchestrated by a leader who was originally elected in a fair competitive election is now the most common way of establishing dictatorship.