Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, volume 291, issue 2016

Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Gauthier Gilles ¹

Ehrich Dorothee ²

Belke-Brea Maria ³

Dominé Florent ^{4, 5}

Alisauskas Ray ⁶

CLARK KARIN ⁷

Ecke Frauke ^{8, 9}

Eide Nina E. ¹⁰

Framstad Erik ¹⁰

Frandsen Jay ¹¹

Gilg Olivier ^{12, 13}

Henttonen Heikki ¹⁴

Hörnfeldt Birger ⁸

Kataev Gennadiy D ¹⁵

Menyushina Irina E

Oksanen Lauri ^{16, 17}

Oksanen Tarja ^{16, 17}

Olofsson Johan ¹⁸

Samelius Gustaf ¹⁹

Sittler Benoit ^{13, 20}

Smith Paul ²¹

Sokolov Aleksandr ²²

Sokolova Natalia ²²

Schmidt Niels Martin ²³

Hide authors affiliations Show authors affiliations: 23 affiliations

Department of Biology and Centre d’études nordiques, Université Laval, Québec city, Québec, Canada |

Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UIT-The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway |

Department of Geography, Takuvik Joint International Laboratory and Centre d’études nordiques, Université Laval, Québec city, Québec, Canada |

⁴

Department of Chemistry, Takuvik Joint International Laboratory and Centre d’études nordiques, Université Laval, Québec city, Québec, Canada |

⁵

CNRS-INSU, Paris, France |

⁶

Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada |

⁷

Environment and Natural Resources, Government of Northwest Territories, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada |

⁸

Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden |

⁹

Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland |

¹⁰

Department of Terrestrial Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim/Oslo, Norway |

¹¹

Western Arctic Field Unit, Parks Canada, Kingmingya, Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada |

¹²

UMR 6249 Chrono-Environnement, CNRS, Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Francheville, France |

¹³

Groupe de recherche en Écologie Arctique, Francheville, France |

¹⁴

Terrestrial Population Dynamics, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland |

¹⁵

Laplandskiy Nature Reserve, Monchegorsk, Murmansk Region, Russia |

¹⁶

Department of Biology, Section of Ecology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland |

¹⁷

Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT - The Arctic University of Norway, Alta, Norway |

¹⁸

Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden |

¹⁹

Snow Leopard Trust, Seattle, WA, USA |

²⁰

Chair for Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany |

²¹

Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada |

²²

Arctic research station of Institute of plant and animal ecology, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Labytnangi, Russia |

²³

Department of Ecoscience and Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark |

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2024-02-14

The Royal Society

Journal: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

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Impact factor: 4.7

ISSN: 09628452

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.2361

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General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

General Medicine

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

General Immunology and Microbiology

General Environmental Science

Abstract

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time ( n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

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Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution	Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 1, 50% Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 1 publication, 50%
Acta Oecologica	Acta Oecologica, 1, 50% Acta Oecologica 1 publication, 50%
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Frontiers Media S.A.	Frontiers Media S.A., 1, 50% Frontiers Media S.A. 1 publication, 50%
Elsevier	Elsevier, 1, 50% Elsevier 1 publication, 50%
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Gauthier G. et al. Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? // Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2024. Vol. 291. No. 2016.

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Gauthier G., Ehrich D., Belke-Brea M., Dominé F., Alisauskas R., CLARK K., Ecke F., Eide N. E., Framstad E., Frandsen J., Gilg O., Henttonen H., Hörnfeldt B., Kataev G. D., Menyushina I. E., Oksanen L., Oksanen T., Olofsson J., Samelius G., Sittler B., Smith P., Sokolov A., Sokolova N., Schmidt N. M. Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate? // Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2024. Vol. 291. No. 2016.

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