Seeding dreams, harvesting uncertainty: graduate aspirations and labour market realities in Nigeria’s vocational agricultural education
Purpose
This tracer study analyses the long-term career trajectories and adaptive strategies of vocational agricultural education graduates in Nigeria, comparing their pre-graduation aspirations (from a 2017 baseline) with their current realities seven years post-graduation. It examines the extent of job placements, self-employment and the practical application of acquired skills, providing novel insights into how graduates navigate a challenging and evolving labour market in a developing economy.
Design/methodology/approach
A mixed-methods research design was employed, following up with 102 purposively sampled graduates (49 males and 53 females) of vocational agricultural education from Nigerian universities who had participated in a prior 2017 study. Data were collected between September and December 2024. A semi-structured questionnaire gathered quantitative data on employment status, sector, self-employment trade and discrepancies between expectations and reality. Qualitative data on the perceived value and applicability of their vocational training were obtained through Zoom interviews with 87 participants. Quantitative data were analysed using frequencies and percentages in SPSS v.29, while interview recordings were transcribed and thematically analysed. The study was grounded in the constructivist theory and Prosser’s Sixteen Theorems.
Findings
The study reveals a significant and sustained shift towards self-employment (45%) among graduates, notably driven by necessity rather than opportunity, particularly among females. A critical finding is the increased drift of graduates into non-agriculturally related sectors (65%), highlighting a profound disconnect between vocational training and labour market absorption in the intended field. Furthermore, a substantial proportion (35.7%) reported that their vocational skills were not applicable, citing curriculum content that failed to reflect current industry realities. This longitudinal perspective demonstrates how graduates “reconstruct” their career paths in response to rising unemployment challenges, often abandoning their field of training.
Research limitations/implications
The reliance on the responses from the purposively sampled participants as respondents for the study could have implications for the generalizability of the findings. Additionally, the reliance on self-reported data and the potential recall bias from the 2017 study may have affected the collected data, particularly in the respondents’ responses. Furthermore, the specific socioeconomic context of Nigeria, as analysed in this study, may limit the transferability of the findings to other economies.
Originality/value
This study offers original knowledge by providing a longitudinal seven-year follow-up on vocational agricultural education graduates in a major African economy. It moves beyond simply identifying the expectation-reality gap by detailing the adaptive mechanisms (e.g. necessity-driven self-employment and cross-sectoral migration) and gender-influenced adaptations. By applying constructivism and Prosser’s theorems to this extended timeline, it offers a deeper understanding of the efficacy of vocational training in dynamic, resource-constrained environments, providing a critical evidence base for urgent policy and curriculum reforms aimed at fostering genuinely impactful “learn-to-earn” pathways.
