Backtracking Counterfactuals and Evolutionary Sequences

ABSTRACT

Backtracking seems centrally problematic to Lewis's counterfactual theory of causation, and others, say, in the structural equation framework. The article focuses on Lewis's backtracking‐related ideas, given their seminal impact. Specifically, I argue for two related theses under indeterminism: (A) A Lewisian sweeping version of the anti‐backtracking rule for causal counterfactuals is untenable due to certain distinctive chance patterns that support corresponding backtracking truths. (B) A special backtracking counterfactual is indispensable for capturing a certain unit structure of some evolutionary sequences, i.e., what I call EPD sequences (where E stands for “evolutionary,” and PD for “path dependent”).