BMJ, pages m441

Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model

Richard D. Riley ¹

Joie Ensor ¹

Kym I. E. Snell ¹

Frank E. Harrell ²

Glen E. Martin ³

Johannes B. Reitsma ⁴

Karel G. M. Moons ⁴

Gary S. Collins ⁵

Maarten van Smeden ^{4, 5, 6}

Hide authors affiliations Show authors affiliations: 6 affiliations

Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Primary, Community and Social Care, Keele University, Staffordshire ST 5BG, UK |

Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville TN, USA |

Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK |

⁴

Julius Center for Health Sciences, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands |

⁵

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK |

⁶

Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center Leiden, Netherlands |

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2020-03-18

BMJ

Journal: BMJ

Quartile SCImago

Quartile WOS

Impact factor: 105.7

ISSN: 09598146, 17561833, 09598138, 14685833, 00071447

DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m441

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General Engineering

Abstract

Clinical prediction models aim to predict outcomes in individuals, to inform diagnosis or prognosis in healthcare. Hundreds of prediction models are published in the medical literature each year, yet many are developed using a dataset that is too small for the total number of participants or outcome events. This leads to inaccurate predictions and consequently incorrect healthcare decisions for some individuals. In this article, the authors provide guidance on how to calculate the sample size required to develop a clinical prediction model.

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European Respiratory Journal	European Respiratory Journal, 5, 0.51% European Respiratory Journal 5 publications, 0.51%
JAMA network open	JAMA network open, 5, 0.51% JAMA network open 5 publications, 0.51%
Frontiers in Immunology	Frontiers in Immunology, 5, 0.51% Frontiers in Immunology 5 publications, 0.51%
Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia	Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia, 5, 0.51% Canadian Journal of Anaesthesia 5 publications, 0.51%
BMC Medicine	BMC Medicine, 5, 0.51% BMC Medicine 5 publications, 0.51%
Frontiers in Public Health	Frontiers in Public Health, 5, 0.51% Frontiers in Public Health 5 publications, 0.51%
Journal of Hepatology	Journal of Hepatology, 5, 0.51% Journal of Hepatology 5 publications, 0.51%
Journal of Vascular Surgery	Journal of Vascular Surgery, 5, 0.51% Journal of Vascular Surgery 5 publications, 0.51%
European Heart Journal	European Heart Journal, 5, 0.51% European Heart Journal 5 publications, 0.51%
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Citations by publishers

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Springer Nature	Springer Nature, 194, 19.68% Springer Nature 194 publications, 19.68%
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Taylor & Francis	Taylor & Francis, 13, 1.32% Taylor & Francis 13 publications, 1.32%
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American Medical Association (AMA)	American Medical Association (AMA), 8, 0.81% American Medical Association (AMA) 8 publications, 0.81%
AME Publishing Company	AME Publishing Company, 8, 0.81% AME Publishing Company 8 publications, 0.81%
European Respiratory Society (ERS)	European Respiratory Society (ERS), 6, 0.61% European Respiratory Society (ERS) 6 publications, 0.61%
IEEE	IEEE, 4, 0.41% IEEE 4 publications, 0.41%
Cambridge University Press	Cambridge University Press, 4, 0.41% Cambridge University Press 4 publications, 0.41%
American Thoracic Society	American Thoracic Society, 3, 0.3% American Thoracic Society 3 publications, 0.3%
The Endocrine Society	The Endocrine Society, 3, 0.3% The Endocrine Society 3 publications, 0.3%
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Medknow Publications	Medknow Publications, 3, 0.3% Medknow Publications 3 publications, 0.3%
American Society of Nephrology	American Society of Nephrology, 2, 0.2% American Society of Nephrology 2 publications, 0.2%
Sports Physical Therapy Section	Sports Physical Therapy Section, 2, 0.2% Sports Physical Therapy Section 2 publications, 0.2%
Hindawi Limited	Hindawi Limited, 2, 0.2% Hindawi Limited 2 publications, 0.2%
S. Karger AG	S. Karger AG, 2, 0.2% S. Karger AG 2 publications, 0.2%
British Editorial Society of Bone and Joint Surgery	British Editorial Society of Bone and Joint Surgery, 2, 0.2% British Editorial Society of Bone and Joint Surgery 2 publications, 0.2%
	20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

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Riley R. D. et al. Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model // BMJ. 2020. p. m441.

GOST all authors (up to 50) Copy

Riley R. D., Ensor J., Snell K. I. E., Harrell F. E., Martin G. E., Reitsma J. B., Moons K. G., Collins G. S., van Smeden M. Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model // BMJ. 2020. p. m441.

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RIS Copy

TY - JOUR

DO - 10.1136/bmj.m441

UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m441

TI - Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model

T2 - BMJ

AU - Riley, Richard D.

AU - Ensor, Joie

AU - Snell, Kym I. E.

AU - Harrell, Frank E.

AU - Martin, Glen E.

AU - Reitsma, Johannes B.

AU - Moons, Karel G. M.

AU - Collins, Gary S.

AU - van Smeden, Maarten

PY - 2020

DA - 2020/03/18 00:00:00

PB - BMJ

SP - m441

SN - 0959-8146

SN - 1756-1833

SN - 0959-8138

SN - 1468-5833

SN - 0007-1447

ER -

BibTex

Cite this

BibTex Copy

@article{2020_Riley,

author = {Richard D. Riley and Joie Ensor and Kym I. E. Snell and Frank E. Harrell and Glen E. Martin and Johannes B. Reitsma and Karel G. M. Moons and Gary S. Collins and Maarten van Smeden},

title = {Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model},

journal = {BMJ},

year = {2020},

publisher = {BMJ},

month = {mar},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m441},

pages = {m441},

doi = {10.1136/bmj.m441}

}

Found error?

Publisher

BMJ

Journal

BMJ

Quartile SCImago

Quartile WOS

Impact factor

105.7

ISSN

09598146 (Print)
17561833 (Electronic)
09598138 (Print)
14685833 (Electronic)
00071447 (Print)