Are Forced Migrant Trajectories Path-Dependent? A Markov Analysis

This study evaluates whether the trajectories of forced migrants, specifically Syrian refugees moving towards Germany, exhibit path dependency—meaning that their migration decisions are influenced by past events and their previous migration experiences. Using data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees, this article investigates whether these migration trajectories adhere to a Markov process, where the likelihood of future migrations depends solely on the current state. By employing global and local Markov score tests, the article systematically tests the Markov assumption across different migration routes, focusing on Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt as transit countries. The findings indicate that shorter, reactive migrations from Syria to Lebanon and Turkey exhibit path dependency, meaning their likelihood is influenced by recent events. Conversely, longer, logistically complex migrations, such as from Syria to Egypt and from transit countries to Germany, adhere to the Markov property, suggesting path independence. This distinction highlights the impact of route difficulty and destination accessibility on migration behaviors. The implications of the findings are also significant for the use of the Markov property in computational models of migration. Researchers should exercise caution when applying the Markov assumption indiscriminately across different migration contexts, as its validity can vary based on external factors such as policy changes and route accessibility.