The Horizon of the Third Pole: Mapping future scenarios and strategic responses

The Third Pole region, comprising the vast glaciers and water systems of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), is emerging as a key indicator of global climate change. Often referred to as the “Water Tower of Asia,” it sustains nearly 2 billion people through its water resources, yet the region is experiencing unprecedented changes. This review examines the region's evolving climate dynamics, focusing on key climate scenarios and potential strategic responses. The paper synthesizes data from the latest climate models, regional governance frameworks, and international climate policy developments to explore future pathways for the Third Pole. It also delves into the region's socio-economic vulnerabilities, water security challenges, and the geopolitical complexities of transboundary environmental governance. Our findings emphasize the need for proactive adaptation strategies, transboundary cooperation, and innovative policy mechanisms to mitigate climate risks. The review provides a roadmap for policymakers, scientists, and regional stakeholders to navigate the looming environmental crises, highlighting pathways that could forge a resilient future for the Third Pole.