Predictors of mortality for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2: a prospective cohort study

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the death of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

All clinical and laboratory parameters were collected prospectively from a cohort of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who were hospitalised to Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China) between 25 December 2019 and 7 February 2020. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the relationship between each variable and the risk of death of COVID-19 pneumonia patients.

In total, 179 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia (97 male and 82 female) were included in the present prospective study, of whom 21 died. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥65 years (OR 3.765, 95% CI 1.146‒17.394; p=0.023), pre-existing concurrent cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases (OR 2.464, 95% CI 0.755‒8.044; p=0.007), CD3⁺CD8⁺ T-cells ≤75 cells·μL⁻¹ (OR 3.982, 95% CI 1.132‒14.006; p<0.001) and cardiac troponin I ≥0.05 ng·mL⁻¹ (OR 4.077, 95% CI 1.166‒14.253; p<0.001) were associated with an increase in risk of mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia. In a sex-, age- and comorbid illness-matched case–control study, CD3⁺CD8⁺ T-cells ≤75 cells·μL⁻¹ and cardiac troponin I ≥0.05 ng·mL⁻¹ remained as predictors for high mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia.

We identified four risk factors: age ≥65 years, pre-existing concurrent cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases, CD3⁺CD8⁺ T-cells ≤75 cells·μL⁻¹ and cardiac troponin I ≥0.05 ng·mL⁻¹. The latter two factors, especially, were predictors for mortality of COVID-19 pneumonia patients.