Causal machine learning models for predicting low birth weight in midwife-led continuity care intervention in North Shoa Zone, Ethiopia

Low birth weight (LBW) is a critical global health issue that affects infants disproportionately, particularly in developing countries. This study adopted causal machine learning (CML) algorithms for predicting LBW in newborns, drawing from midwife-led continuity care (MLCC). A quasi-experimental study was carried out in the North Shoa Zone of Ethiopia from August 2019 to September 2020. A total of 1166 women were allocated into two groups. The first group, the MLCC group, received all their antenatal, labor, birth, and immediate post-natal care from a single midwife. The second group received care from various staff members at different times throughout their pregnancy and childbirth. In this study, CML was implemented to predict LBW. Data preprocessing, including data cleaning, was conducted. CML was then employed to identify the most suitable classifier for predicting LBW. Gradient boosting algorithms were used to estimate the causal effect of MLCC on LBW. Moreover, meta-learner algorithms were utilized to estimate the individual treatment effect (ITE), the average treatment effect (ATE), and performance. Moreover, meta-learner algorithms were utilized to estimate the individual treatment effect (ITE), the average treatment effect (ATE), and performance. The study results revealed that Causal K-Nearest Neighbors (CKNN) was the most effective classifier based on accuracy and estimated LBW using a 94.52% accuracy, 90.25% precision, 92.57% recall, and an F1 score of 88.2%. Meconium aspiration, perinatal mortality, pregnancy-induced hypertension, vacuum babies in need of resuscitation, and previous surgeries on their reproductive organs were identified as the top five features affecting LBW. The estimated impact of MLCC versus other professional groups on LBW was analyzed using gradient boosting algorithms and was found to be 0.237. The estimated ATE for the S-learner was 0.284, which is lower than the true ATE of 0.216. Additionally, the estimated ITE for both the T-learner and X-learner was less than -0.5, indicating that mothers would not choose to participate in the MLCC program. Based on these findings, the CKNN classifier demonstrated a higher accuracy and effectiveness. The S-learner and R-learner models, utilizing the XGBoost Regressor and BaseSRegressor, provided accurate estimations of ITE for assessing the impact of the MLCC program. Promoting the MLCC program could help stabilize LBW outcomes.