Association of survival and genomic mutation signature with immunotherapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Current guidelines lack recommendations for the use of immunotherapy and immune-related biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aim to provide reliable evidence of the association of survival with HCC immunotherapy and to demonstrate that genomic mutation signature could be an effective biomarker to predict immunotherapy efficacy of HCC patients.We conducted a meta-analysis of 17 randomized trials with 2055 patients and an individual patient-level analysis of 31 patients. Trial data were identified in PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Central library, and individual patient data were obtained from the cBioPortal database. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed with the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018083991.The meta-analysis showed that compared to conventional therapy, immunotherapy resulted in prolonged OS (HR =0.65, P<0.0001, high quality) and PFS (HR =0.81, P<0.0001, high quality); the benefits were observed for cellular immunotherapy, tumor vaccine, and cytokine immunotherapy. Findings were robust to subgroup and trial sequential analyses. In the individual patient-level analysis of patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitor, mutations in TERT, CTNNB1, BRD4, or MLL, and co-mutations in TP53 and TERT or BRD4 were associated with significantly worse survival. These oncogenes were used to develop a novel integrated mutation risk score, which exhibited better utility in predicting survival than the tumor mutation burden (TMB). Patients with low- versus high- mutation risk score had longer OS (HR =0.18, P=0.02) and PFS (HR =0.33, P=0.018). A nomogram comprising the mutation risk score and essential clinical factors further improved the predictive accuracy (AUC =0.840 for both 1- and 2-year OS).Immunotherapy showed longer OS and PFS than conventional therapy among HCC patients, especially patients with a low mutation risk score. The nomogram based on genomic and clinical characteristics is effective in predicting survival of HCC patients undergoing immune checkpoint inhibitor.