Development of a 2D hydrodynamic model for flood assessment and alert system for the lower Narmada basin, Gujarat (India)

ABSTRACT

The study develops a 2D hydrodynamic model using HEC-RAS to assess flood hazards and generate inundation maps for the lower Narmada basin in Gujarat, India. The model effectively simulates flood dynamics by integrating data, i.e. digital elevation models, stream gauge data, and land use and land cover information. Results indicate strong model performance, with R² and RMSE values of 0.92 and 0.12 for calibration and 0.77 and 0.08 for validation. Approximately 326.45 km² of the basin is severely inundated during major flood events, with agriculture being most affected. The model's outputs, including depth maps, velocity maps, and water arrival time predictions, provide critical insights for flood management. Floodwaters take 110 h to reach nearby areas and 361 h to reach validation points from upstream dam releases, offering an 8-h window to alert residents of potential overflow conditions. This information is vital for early warning systems and evacuation planning.