Estimating the contribution of thermal processes to generation of seismicity in the junction zone of the Chuya Depression and the Kyrgyz Ridge of the Northern Tien Shan

This paper presents the attempt to estimate the contribution of thermal processes in the Earth’s crust to the generation of seismicity by the example of the seismically active region of the Chuya depression and the Kyrgyz ridge of the Northern Tien Shan. For this purpose, we use the models of temperature, petrophysical characteristics, and elastic moduli constructed in the previous works. The silica content model based on seismic tomography data is used to build a lithotype model. The constructed thermal conductivity model is utilized, along with the temperature model, to create a depth model of heat flow density. Based on the density, elastic moduli, and temperature models, the shear and thermoelastic stress models in the rocks are constructed. Their comparison with the distribution of earthquake hypocenters suggests that on the scale of the seismically active zone of the Chuya depression and the Kyrgyz ridge of the Northern Tien Shan, seismicity is mainly determined by the thermomechanical effect resulting from the hot ascending flow of acid magma from the upper mantle beneath the Muyunkum–Narat median mass.