Flood Risk Assessment and Zoning for Niamey and Lokoja Metropolises in Niger and Nigeria

With the increasing frequency of floods in recent decades, particularly in West Africa, many regions have faced unusual and recurrent flooding events. Communities in flood-prone areas experience heightened insecurity, loss of property, and, in some cases, serious injuries or fatalities. Consequently, flood risk assessment and mitigation have become essential. This comparative study between Niamey and Lokoja employs Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to delineate flood susceptibility, vulnerability, and risk zones. The study utilized a comprehensive range of thematic layers, with weight percentages assigned to each parameter as follows: 29% for elevation, 24% for slope, 15% for the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), 9% for drainage density, 9% for distance from rivers, 4% for both precipitation and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and 2% each for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and soil type. To validate these weightings, a consistency ratio was calculated, ensuring it remained below 10%. The findings reveal that 32% of the Niamey study area is at risk of flooding, compared to approximately 15% in Lokoja. The results highlight a very high flood potential, particularly in areas near the Niger River, with this potential decreasing as elevation increases. Given the current prevalence of extreme weather events in West Africa, it is crucial to employ effective tools to mitigate their adverse impacts. This research will assist decision-makers in quantifying the spatial vulnerability of flood-prone areas and developing effective flood risk assessment and mitigation strategies in the region.