Open Access

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

, volume 6 , issue 3 , pages 92

A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries

Marina Vasiljeva ^{1, 2}

Inna Neskorodieva ³

Vadim Ponkratov ⁴

Nikolay Kuznetsov ⁵

Vitali Ivlev ⁶

Marina Ivleva ⁷

Maksim Maramygin ⁸

Angelina Zekiy ⁹

Hide authors affiliations Show authors affiliations: 9 affiliations

Atlantic Science and Technology Academic Press, Boston, MA 01233, USA |

Autonomous Non-Profit Organization “Publishing House Scientific Review” (Nauchnoe Obozrenie), 127051 Moscow, Russia |

Educational and Scientific Institute, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, 4 Svobody Sq., 61022 Kharkiv, Ukraine |

⁴

Department of Public Finance, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, 49 Leningradsky Ave., 125993 Moscow, Russia |

⁵

Research Institute of Digital Transformation Management, State University of Management, 99 Ryazansky Av., 109542 Moscow, Russia |

⁶

Philosophy Department, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 5/1 Baumanskaya 2-ya St., 105005 Moscow, Russia |

⁷

History and Philosophy Department, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 36 Stremyanny Lane, 117997 Moscow, Russia |

⁸

Department of Finance, Monetary Circulation and Credit, Ural State University of Economics, 62 8 Marta St., 620144 Yekaterinburg, Russia |

⁹

Prosthodontics Department, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Trubetskaya St., 8, Bd. 2, 119991 Moscow, Russia |

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2020-09-22

MDPI

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

scimago Q1

SJR: 1.215

CiteScore: 14.0

Impact factor: —

ISSN: 21998531

DOI: 10.3390/joitmc6030092

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Sociology and Political Science

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Development

Abstract

The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated based on trend analysis. Factors affecting the intensity of disease and the number of infected persons have been determined. Integral model of their influence has been built using regression analysis. Based on the values of the factors, the number of infected people and the rate of infection were predicted for each of the Eastern European countries. The prognostic duration of the stage of exponential disease growth and the total duration of quarantine (epidemiological saturation point) are substantiated. The predicted decline in Eastern European GDP due to COVID-19 has been estimated based on the construction of a prognostic regression model. The results obtained can be used by state authorities and economic agents as a tool for active and preventive response. They can also serve as an example of the urgent need to develop, especially in non-standard situations, mechanisms and products of open innovation.

Found

3 citations

Vasiljeva Marina

DSc in Economics, associate professor

26 publications, 227 citations

h-index: 8

Autonomous Non-Profit Organization “Publishing House Scientific Review” (Nauchnoe Obozrenie)

State (municipal) finances

2 citations

Ponkratov Vadim

PhD in Economics

58 publications, 419 citations

h-index: 12

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation

Autonomous Non-Profit Organization “Publishing House Scientific Review” (Nauchnoe Obozrenie)

Research interests

Economy

Jurisprudence

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GOST Copy

Vasiljeva M. et al. A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries // Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity. 2020. Vol. 6. No. 3. p. 92.

GOST all authors (up to 50) Copy

Vasiljeva M., Neskorodieva I., Ponkratov V., Kuznetsov N., Ivlev V., Ivleva M., Maramygin M., Zekiy A. A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries // Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity. 2020. Vol. 6. No. 3. p. 92.

RIS |

Cite this

RIS Copy

TY - JOUR

DO - 10.3390/joitmc6030092

UR - https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030092

TI - A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries

T2 - Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

AU - Vasiljeva, Marina

AU - Neskorodieva, Inna

AU - Ponkratov, Vadim

AU - Kuznetsov, Nikolay

AU - Ivlev, Vitali

AU - Ivleva, Marina

AU - Maramygin, Maksim

AU - Zekiy, Angelina

PY - 2020

DA - 2020/09/22

PB - MDPI

SP - 92

IS - 3

VL - 6

SN - 2199-8531

ER -

BibTex |

Cite this

BibTex (up to 50 authors) Copy

@article{2020_Vasiljeva,

author = {Marina Vasiljeva and Inna Neskorodieva and Vadim Ponkratov and Nikolay Kuznetsov and Vitali Ivlev and Marina Ivleva and Maksim Maramygin and Angelina Zekiy},

title = {A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries},

journal = {Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity},

year = {2020},

volume = {6},

publisher = {MDPI},

month = {sep},

url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030092},

number = {3},

pages = {92},

doi = {10.3390/joitmc6030092}

}

MLA

Cite this

MLA Copy

Vasiljeva, Marina, et al. “A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries.” Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, vol. 6, no. 3, Sep. 2020, p. 92. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030092.

Publisher

MDPI

Journal

Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity

scimago Q1

SJR

1.215

CiteScore

14.0

Impact factor

—

ISSN

21998531 (Print, Electronic)

Labs

International Laboratory for Effective Digital Transformation of Management in the transition to "Society 5.0"

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