Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Analysis of Driving Factors in Jiangxi Province’s Livestock Industry from a Life Cycle Perspective

As a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, objectively understanding the quantity of emissions from the livestock industry and their spatiotemporal evolution is crucial for advancing low-carbon and green development in regional livestock industries. Therefore, based on the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method, this study estimated greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock industry across 11 municipal regions in Jiangxi Province from 2002 to 2022, revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics of these emissions. The study also employed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model to analyze the influencing factors. The results showed that (1) between 2002 and 2022, total greenhouse gas emissions from Jiangxi Province’s livestock industry exhibited an upward trend, increasing from 13.52 million tons to 21.27 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 2.36%. (2) During the study period, the spatial patterns of super-high-emission and light-emission zones remained relatively stable, while medium and heavy emission zones showed dynamic evolution. (3) Intensity effects, agricultural structural effects, and rural population size played a suppressive role in livestock greenhouse gas emissions, while regional development levels and urbanization levels were key drivers of increased emissions. Therefore, governments should accelerate the implementation of clean production models, enhance technological innovation, promote pollution reduction at the source, and develop differentiated livestock development strategies based on regional resource endowments and demographic–economic characteristics.