Evolution of Disruption Resilience in the Wood Forest Products Trade Network, Considering the Propagation of Disruption Risks and Underload Cascading Failure

With the intensification of global resource competition, the issue of timber supply has escalated from an economic concern to a significant strategic challenge. This study focuses on the evolution of disruption resilience in the global trade network for wood forest products, aiming to reveal the patterns of resilience dynamics under disruption risks by simulating underload cascading failure phenomena. The study provides theoretical support for enhancing the security and stability of the global wood forest product supply chain. Utilizing global trade data from the UN Comtrade Database 2023, a directed weighted complex network model was constructed, spanning upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, with trade intensity distances serving as edge weights. By developing an underload cascading failure model, the evolution of disruption resilience was simulated under various disruption scenarios from 2002 to 2023, and the long-term impacts of critical node failures on network performance were analyzed. The results demonstrate significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the disruption resilience of the global wood forest product trade network. The upstream network exhibits improved resilience in total node strength but reduced global efficiency. The midstream network shows marked volatility in resilience due to external shocks, such as the global financial crisis, while the downstream network remains relatively stable. Simulations reveal that failures in core nodes (e.g., China, the United States, and Germany) disproportionately degrade global efficiency and node strength, with node centrality metrics positively correlated with network performance loss. This study elucidates the evolutionary mechanisms of disruption resilience in the wood forest product trade network under risk propagation, offering actionable insights for optimizing network robustness and supply chain stability. It is recommended that policymakers promote green supply chain initiatives, accelerate afforestation projects, and enhance domestic timber self-sufficiency to reduce reliance on imported timber, thereby strengthening node resilience and fostering sustainable forest resource utilization for economic and environmental benefits.