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том 16 издание 15 страницы 9847-9862

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Raquel A. Silva 1
J.Jason West 1
Drew Shindell 3
William F. Collins 4
S. B. Dalsøren 5
Greg Faluvegi 6
Gerd Folberth 7
Larry W. Horowitz 8, 9
Tatsuya Nagashima 10, 11
Vaishali Naik 8, 9
Steven T. Rumbold 12
T Takemura 14
Daniel Bergmann 15
Philip Cameron-Smith 15
Irene Cionni 16
Ruth Doherty 17
Veronika Eyring 18
Beatrice Josse 19
Ian Mackenzie 17
David A. Plummer 20
M. Righi 18
David A. Stevenson 17
Sarah Strode 21, 22
Sophie Szopa 23
Guang-qiao Zeng 24, 25
5
 
CICERO, Center for International Climate and EnvironmentalResearch – Oslo, Oslo, Norway
8
 
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
9
 
Princeton New Jersey USA
11
 
Tsukuba Japan.
19
 
GAME/CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS – Centre National de RecherchesMeteorologiques, Toulouse, France
20
 
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, EnvironmentCanada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Тип публикацииJournal Article
Дата публикации2016-08-05
scimago Q1
wos Q1
БС1
SJR2.112
CiteScore10.3
Impact factor5.1
ISSN16807316, 16807324
Atmospheric Science
Краткое описание

Abstract. Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between −2.39 and −1.31 million deaths year−1 for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths year−1 in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry–climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

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Silva R. A. et al. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble // Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2016. Vol. 16. No. 15. pp. 9847-9862.
ГОСТ со всеми авторами (до 50) Скопировать
Silva R. A., West J., Lamarque J., Shindell D., Collins W. F., Dalsøren S. B., Faluvegi G., Folberth G., Horowitz L. W., Nagashima T., Naik V., Rumbold S. T., SUDO K., Takemura T., Bergmann D., Cameron-Smith P., Cionni I., Doherty R., Eyring V., Josse B., Mackenzie I., Plummer D. A., Righi M., Stevenson D. A., Strode S., Szopa S., Zeng G. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble // Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2016. Vol. 16. No. 15. pp. 9847-9862.
RIS |
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TY - JOUR
DO - 10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016
UR - https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016
TI - The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble
T2 - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
AU - Silva, Raquel A.
AU - West, J.Jason
AU - Lamarque, Jean-Francois
AU - Shindell, Drew
AU - Collins, William F.
AU - Dalsøren, S. B.
AU - Faluvegi, Greg
AU - Folberth, Gerd
AU - Horowitz, Larry W.
AU - Nagashima, Tatsuya
AU - Naik, Vaishali
AU - Rumbold, Steven T.
AU - SUDO, Katsuhiko
AU - Takemura, T
AU - Bergmann, Daniel
AU - Cameron-Smith, Philip
AU - Cionni, Irene
AU - Doherty, Ruth
AU - Eyring, Veronika
AU - Josse, Beatrice
AU - Mackenzie, Ian
AU - Plummer, David A.
AU - Righi, M.
AU - Stevenson, David A.
AU - Strode, Sarah
AU - Szopa, Sophie
AU - Zeng, Guang-qiao
PY - 2016
DA - 2016/08/05
PB - Copernicus
SP - 9847-9862
IS - 15
VL - 16
PMID - 29250104
SN - 1680-7316
SN - 1680-7324
ER -
BibTex |
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BibTex (до 50 авторов) Скопировать
@article{2016_Silva,
author = {Raquel A. Silva and J.Jason West and Jean-Francois Lamarque and Drew Shindell and William F. Collins and S. B. Dalsøren and Greg Faluvegi and Gerd Folberth and Larry W. Horowitz and Tatsuya Nagashima and Vaishali Naik and Steven T. Rumbold and Katsuhiko SUDO and T Takemura and Daniel Bergmann and Philip Cameron-Smith and Irene Cionni and Ruth Doherty and Veronika Eyring and Beatrice Josse and Ian Mackenzie and David A. Plummer and M. Righi and David A. Stevenson and Sarah Strode and Sophie Szopa and Guang-qiao Zeng},
title = {The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
year = {2016},
volume = {16},
publisher = {Copernicus},
month = {aug},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016},
number = {15},
pages = {9847--9862},
doi = {10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016}
}
MLA
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Silva, Raquel A., et al. “The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 16, no. 15, Aug. 2016, pp. 9847-9862. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016.