Applied Mathematics and Computation, volume 182, issue 2, pages 1735-1748

Further critique of GARCH/ARMA/VAR/EVT Stochastic-Volatility models and related approaches

Michael I. C. Nwogugu 1
1
 
P.O. Box 170002, Brooklyn, NY 11217, USA
Publication typeJournal Article
Publication date2006-11-16
scimago Q1
SJR1.026
CiteScore7.9
Impact factor3.5
ISSN00963003, 18735649
Computational Mathematics
Applied Mathematics
Abstract
This article critiques models of market risk (ARMA, GARCH, ARCH, EVT, VAR, Stochastic-Volatility, etc.). The existing metrics for quantifying risk such as standard deviation, VAR/GARCH/EVT/ARMA/SV, etc. are inaccurate and inadequate particularly in emerging markets; and do not account for many facets of risk and decision making; and do not incorporate the many psychological, legal, liquidity, knowledge, and price-dynamic factors inherent in markets and asset prices. Areas for further research include: (a) development of dynamic market-risk models that incorporate asset-market psychology, liquidity, market size, frequency of trading, knowledge differences among market participants, information (capabilities and processing, and trading rules in each market); and (b) further development of concepts in belief systems.
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