Open Access
Climate Services, volume 30, pages 100356
Climate change impacts the state of winter roads connecting indigenous communities: Case study of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic
Kirillina Kyunney
1
,
Tananayev N.I.
1, 2
,
Savvinova Antonina
3
,
Lobanov Vladimir A.
4
,
Fedorova Alla
3
,
Borisov Aleksei
5
4
Publication type: Journal Article
Publication date: 2023-04-01
Atmospheric Science
Global and Planetary Change
Abstract
Winter roads, or zimnik, serve as major connections between communities across the global Arctic, including Sakha (Yakutia) Republic. Although accessible to general public, winter roads in remote regions are primarily used by indigenous communities. Sustainability of winter roads is reduced by climate change effects, via shorter and milder winters, extended shoulder seasons, delayed freeze up and advanced ice break up on rivers used as ice roads. We review the observed and projected change in mean monthly air temperatures, MMAT, °C, during cold season in six localities of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, important residence areas of the indigenous peoples of the North. In observed MMAT records, only North-Western Yakutia hasn’t experienced significant warming. In other localities, a significant step-shift change is observed in months from March to June, and at several stations, also in October and November. Under future climate, assessed with a regional ensemble of global climate models, projected change is expected in core winter months, November to February. In the near future, 2021–2050 period, increase in MMAT is expected mostly in December and January, with only minor increase in shoulder seasons, except in southern Yakutia. In the far future, 2071–2100, only under optimistic SSP 1–2.6 scenario the MMAT change is contained within +3.5 °C, and even in this case, April MMAT increases above −2°C at stations in southern Yakutia. Under SSP 5–8.5 scenario, highest MMAT increase, up to over +12 °C, is projected in the Yakutian Arctic from December to February. In southern Yakutia, both October and April MMAT around or above 0 °C are projected. Winter Road Sustainability Index is assessed based on observed and projected climate. Over northern Yakutia, higher MMAT in core winter months suggest reduced ice thickness on rivers, but overall climate severity allows sustainable winter road operations throughout the season even under high emission scenarios. In the near future, only winter road operations around Tyanya, in the Evenki residence area, become moderately affected under most SSP scenarios. In the far future, winter road operations around Tyanya, Ust-Maya and Neryungri, also Evenki residence area, become highly vulnerable under most scenarios. Practical implications include institutional response, transport system adaptation, adjustment of road maintenance protocols, and reconsidering local production.
Citations by journals
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1
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Arctic and Subarctic Natural Resources
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Arctic and Subarctic Natural Resources, 1, 50%
Arctic and Subarctic Natural Resources
1 publication, 50%
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Vestnik of North-Eastern Federal University Series Earth Sciences
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Vestnik of North-Eastern Federal University Series Earth Sciences
1 publication, 50%
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1
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Citations by publishers
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1
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Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
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Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), 1, 50%
Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
1 publication, 50%
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M. K. Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University
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M. K. Ammosov North-Eastern Federal University
1 publication, 50%
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1
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Kirillina K. et al. Climate change impacts the state of winter roads connecting indigenous communities: Case study of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic // Climate Services. 2023. Vol. 30. p. 100356.
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Kirillina K., Tananayev N., Savvinova A., Lobanov V. A., Fedorova A., Borisov A. Climate change impacts the state of winter roads connecting indigenous communities: Case study of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic // Climate Services. 2023. Vol. 30. p. 100356.
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TY - JOUR
DO - 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100356
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.cliser.2023.100356
TI - Climate change impacts the state of winter roads connecting indigenous communities: Case study of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic
T2 - Climate Services
AU - Kirillina, Kyunney
AU - Tananayev, N.I.
AU - Savvinova, Antonina
AU - Lobanov, Vladimir A.
AU - Fedorova, Alla
AU - Borisov, Aleksei
PY - 2023
DA - 2023/04/01 00:00:00
PB - Elsevier
SP - 100356
VL - 30
SN - 2405-8807
ER -
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@article{2023_Kirillina,
author = {Kyunney Kirillina and N.I. Tananayev and Antonina Savvinova and Vladimir A. Lobanov and Alla Fedorova and Aleksei Borisov},
title = {Climate change impacts the state of winter roads connecting indigenous communities: Case study of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic},
journal = {Climate Services},
year = {2023},
volume = {30},
publisher = {Elsevier},
month = {apr},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.cliser.2023.100356},
pages = {100356},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100356}
}
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