Analysis of trends in disaster risk

We follow the United Nations Sendai (2015) [1] framework for the reduction of disaster risk to go beyond traditional impactmeasures and compute the Sendai targets for individual risk and property risk. We show that individual risk is “very likely” falling between 1970 and 2019 while property risk is “likely” falling between 1980 and 2019; additionally, the related financial risk, faced by insurers, is increasing over the same period with “virtually certainty”. We underscore the greater burden befalling developing economies over the long run, since individual and property risk are respectively 2 and 3 times larger than in the OECD. Singular assessments for Bangladesh, Switzerland and the USA are used to showmelioration and convergence but also the limits of our global analysis. • The (global) risk of dying in a natural disaster is “very likely” falling. • Global property losses per unit of wealth are “likely” falling. • Global financial losses per unit of wealth are “certainly” rising. • Financial losses amount to 2‰ of Gross National Income (in the long run). • Individual and property risk in developing countries triple the OECD levels.