Boccard, Nicolas

Boccard N.

Boccard N.

Ideally, a representative democracy awards a genuine vote to each adult. We study this issue in competitive democracies with an election model combining district apportionment and proportional representation. Four classic seat allocation rules, including d’Hondt, are reframed as Dutch auctions, allowing important properties to be easily derived. The pros and cons of these methods are stated in terms of economic inequality; Sainte Laguë’s is shown to best carry the genuine vote ideal, both for elections and for apportionment. We next expound the interplay between these two components in generating an inequitable treatment of voters and develop the scale-free index of inequity best fitted to their concern. We apply it to 40 countries for the apportionment of electoral districts. Lastly, we compute the same inequity index for recent parliamentary elections in 80 countries, finding that the majority system mistreats electors, thus putting a ‘price’ on government stability.

Boccard N.

We study the prevalence of forest fires in Spain in the long run by computing the probability that a forest tree, as opposed to shrub or bush, will be lost to fire over the course of the year. Climate change is first shown to increase the likelihood of this event. Next, we document how risk grew dramatically from 1961 up to the democratic era (c. 1980) and has since receded to less than 2 trees lost per thousand. We bring together the socioeconomic drivers identified for this trend reversal. Our finding is commensurate with the evolution of the same risk in neighboring Mediterranean countries.

Boccard N.

Low carbon power technologies are needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Will major candidates nuclear, wind and solar power be able to scale-up multiple times? Our contribution to this inquiry focuses on the size of a typical generation plant to compare candidates across the criteria of physical scalability, building experience and financial lumpiness; the relative successes and failures of industries in recent decades are assessed. Because unit size differs by three orders of magnitude between each of these technologies, marked findings obtain. Smaller devices (power units) allow for more innovation, more financing and thus a faster uptake. Henceforth, solar photovoltaic displays the greatest ability to replace aging fossil fuel power stations, followed by wind power at some distance because its recent evolution is going contrariwise. Conversely, the outlook for nuclear power in the developed global north is somber and only mildly positive in the fast developing global south; we make a modest case for the novel nuclear modular concept. Looking ahead, alternative renewable sources, such as bioenergy, should also be actively pursued as they may provide much needed backup to intermittent wind and solar.

Boccard N.

Abstract We study the prevalence of forest fires in Spain in the long run by computing the probability that a forest tree, as opposed to shrub or bush, will be lost to fire over the course of the year. Climate change is first shown to increase the likelihood of this event. Next, we document how risk grew dramatically from 1961 up to the democratic era (c. 1980) and has since receded to less than 2 trees lost per thousand. We bring together the socio-economic drivers identified for this trend reversal. Our finding is commensurate with the evolution of the same risk in neighboring Mediterranean countries.

Boccard N.

Boccard N., Gautier A.

Many jurisdictions use net metering to record power exchanges between residential solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and the grid, thus valuing solar power at the electricity retail rate. However, if over the billing period, production exceeds consumption, the surplus remains freely available for consumption. In Wallonia (Belgium), the combination of net metering and generous subsidies for rooftop PV installation encouraged households to set-up large systems, possibly exceeding their consumption needs. We test this potential rebound effect with a large sample of residential PV installations. We observe that a large proportion of households oversize their installation to benefit from the subsidies and, later consume most of their excess production. The effect is econometrically highly significant. There is thus evidence of a strong increase in energy consumption by residential PV owners, which runs counter to the original policy design. • In Wallonia (Belgium), the support to solar panels combined net metering and generous production subsidies • In reaction to these generous subsidies, many households oversized their installation compared to their consumption needs • Households with oversized installations have free electricity to consume • We document a significant rebound in consumption created by the support scheme in place

Boccard N.

Boccard N.

A low carbon electricity generating technology will contribute to the energy transition only if it is able to scale up. From that perspective, we compare nuclear, wind and solar power with respect to the size of a typical power plant, across the criteria of physical scalability, build- ing experience and financial lumpiness. Because size differs by 3 orders of magnitude between these technologies, markedly different findings obtain, providing a convincing rationale for the relative successes and failures of the industries behind each. We conclude that smaller devices such as solar panels allow for more innovation, more financing and thus a faster diffusion. By the same token, we see no end in sight for the problems afflicting nuclear power. We make a modest case for the novel modular concept even though it falls pray to the same essential defects. The tendency toward gigantism afflicting wind power may brings forth the difficulties nuclear power has faced for long.

Boccard N.

We follow the United Nations Sendai (2015) [1] framework for the reduction of disaster risk to go beyond traditional impactmeasures and compute the Sendai targets for individual risk and property risk. We show that individual risk is “very likely” falling between 1970 and 2019 while property risk is “likely” falling between 1980 and 2019; additionally, the related financial risk, faced by insurers, is increasing over the same period with “virtually certainty”. We underscore the greater burden befalling developing economies over the long run, since individual and property risk are respectively 2 and 3 times larger than in the OECD. Singular assessments for Bangladesh, Switzerland and the USA are used to showmelioration and convergence but also the limits of our global analysis. • The (global) risk of dying in a natural disaster is “very likely” falling. • Global property losses per unit of wealth are “likely” falling. • Global financial losses per unit of wealth are “certainly” rising. • Financial losses amount to 2‰ of Gross National Income (in the long run). • Individual and property risk in developing countries triple the OECD levels.

Boccard N.

Boccard N., Gautier A.

Boccard N.

Using an exhaustive administrative database, we assess the impact of extreme weather events over French cities between 1982 and 2017. We identify numerous non-catastrophic disasters, thereby improving coverage wrt. the existing literature. Counting residents of cities stricken by a disaster, we find that in the long run, there were 22 residents affected every month per thousand population. This risk factor has been falling by 5 fewer people with every passing decade. France has thus improved its preparedness to natural disasters even though the seaboard regions fare worse than the northern region, most likely because of heightened urban pressure in hazardous areas by the seaside. Tropical territories are more at risk than the temperate European mainland, from a different mix of events. The full economic cost of natural disasters is estimated at 22 € per capita per year and represent a small fraction of property insurance premiums. Residents from safer areas currently subsidize those living in riskier areas. To be more effective, preventive investments should be directed towards the main cities.

Boccard N.

We tackle the incidence of accidents within the energy supply chain and firstly extend the analysis from severe accidents to smaller ones. We are then able to go beyond fossil fuels technologies and estimate the hazard rate (ratio of casualties to energy) of wind power, the electricity network and the nuclear sector (for latent victims). Technologies are ranked, separately in the developed and developing worlds. In a second part, we compute the risk rate (ratio of casualties to population) for a variety of countries, accounting for the energy mix and imports; differences are found to be less glaring than for hazard rates. Lastly, we compare this risk of energy supply with the negative health impacts of energy consumption such as atmospheric pollution and road accidents. We find that for every casualty within the energy supply chain, there is a hundred more casualties among end-users in the developed countries and a thousand more in the developing ones. These stark differences call for giving priority to policies aimed at reducing the negative externalities of energy production and consumption.

Boccard N.

Fei C.J., Kung C., McCarl B.A.

Memtimin M., Wang N., Mogi G.

Gautier A., Jacqmin J., Poudou J.

Simangan D., Fisher J., Ide T., Koubi V., Sharifi A., Alfredo K., Candelaria J.L., Dalby S., Hendrix C., Kharrazi A., Oswald-Spring Ú., Roy J.

Peña G.

Allen K.J., Gouramanis C., Sauchyn D.

E. Oliver M.

This chapter provides a broad overview of current economic issues related to integrating distributed energy resources (DERs)—primarily solar photovoltaics (PV) and battery electric storage (BES)—into the electricity system, and the implications this has for electricity markets. Topics covered include (but are not limited to) generation intermittency, merit-order effects, the ‘duck curve’ problem, resource adequacy and the ‘missing-money’ problem, efficient investment in flexible generation and storage, implications for the electricity transmission and retail distribution systems, incentivizing adoption of DERs, and the solar rebound effect. The chapter’s general aim is to provide a non-economics audience with a broad sense of the current state of economic research on these topics.

Savari M., Jafari A., Sheheytavi A.

Although climatic and environmental factors primarily determine the intensity of flood events, their impacts on residents are significantly influenced by human-related elements. Since the most floods are highly variable and unpredictable, it is crucial to enhance the capacity and resilience of residents to withstand and coexist with these disasters. To increase the resilience and adaptability of rural households in the face of floods, it is essential to first address individuals’ risk perception as a critical issue. This study was conducted with two primary. Objectives (1) to assess the current status of risk perception and (2) to identify the factors influencing flood risk perception (FRP) among local communities. The research population comprised all rural households in the Shushtar County (Southwest Iran) who had experienced at least one flood event. The primary research tool was a questionnaire, and data analysis was performed using SPSS software. Correlation coefficient results indicated significant relationships between age, frequency of flood occurrence, education, distance of water channels and rivers from properties, flood exposure, housing quality, risk information, flood coping information, and financial incentives for recovery with dimensions of risk perception, namely preparedness, worry, awareness, and experience. Additionally, hierarchical regression results demonstrated that these variables could explain 55.4% of the variance in FRP. Overall, the findings of this study can significantly assist policymakers in designing flood risk reduction programs and facilitating safer living conditions in flood-prone areas.

Floreani V.A., Rama M.

Böning J., Bruninx K., Ovaere M., Pepermans G., Delarue E.

Lu Y., Lin Y., Howard N., Brown C.P., Gong X.

Liu L., Liu L., Liu K., Jiménez-Zarco A.I.

Malecha Z., Chorowski M.

This study investigates the effects of velocity deficits on the performance of wind turbines in multi-row wind farms, focusing on two types of turbines: Gamesa G132 and Gamesa SG8. The analysis examines the impact of turbine spacing on key performance metrics, including Annual Energy Production, energy production losses, and the capacity factor. Two models are used: the classical Jensen model, assuming a constant thrust coefficient (CT), and an updated model that incorporates the actual turbine-specific CT(U) characteristics. The results demonstrate that as turbine spacing decreases, the velocity deficit behind the turbines increases, leading to significant reductions in AEP and higher energy losses. These effects are particularly pronounced for spacings of 5D and 3D, raising concerns about the economic feasibility of such wind farms. This study also highlights that the proposed updated Jensen model, which accounts for the specific turbine characteristics, provides results that are closer to real-world observations. This study showed that for a Baltic Sea wind farm location, the capacity factor for the wind farm is in the range of 0.366 to 0.476, depending on the turbine spacing.

Awandu W., Wiesemann J., Lehmann B.

Abstract This article presents the design, construction and field test of an experimental prototype of a low-cost hydrokinetic turbine technology made of local materials and e-waste components. The aim of this study is to investigate the performance of the turbine when subjected to field conditions in low flow velocity rivers. The research and development (R&D) involve the use of e-waste boat motor and locally available materials to develop a modular hydrokinetic turbine for generation of electricity using kinetic energy of rivers. A decommissioned boat motor with a 0.24 m diameter rotor is operated as a turbine. A shroud for flow acceleration was developed from 1.5 mm thick stainless-steel plates and a support structure constructed using angle lines. The field test results of the prototype generated about 11.543 ± 0.021 W and 37.129 ± 0.021 W or (equivalent of 0.011543 kWh and 0.037129 kWh) when operated at an approach flow velocity of 0.8 m s−1 and 1.2 m s−1 respectively. The wire to water ratio was determined instead of the Cp and the turbine achieved an overall wire to water efficiency of 0.99 and 0.95 respectively. This prototype technology can sustainably provide 24 h energy, sufficient to charge batteries in the rural areas and also provide opportunities within the community such as mobile charging points. An upscaled version of this low-cost technology can be adaptable in rural off-grid communities to enhance the access to electricity in developing countries.

Kartal M.T., Mukhtarov S., Hajiyeva N.

Hojckova K., Ahlborg H., Sandén B.A.

One way to design an electricity system wholly based on renewables is referred to as the global Super-grid, a vision of a transmission network of unprecedented geographical scope that uses advanced technology to balance spatially and temporally varying supply and demand across the globe. While proponents, since the 1960s, have argued that a global Super-grid is technologically possible and socially desirable, and significant technical progress has been made since the 1990s, development is slow with new transmission lines being built predominantly with established technology and within the boundaries of single countries. The aim of this study is to explore sociotechnical drivers and barriers of global Super-grid development. A main driver is the century old ideas that larger grids are more efficient and contribute to cooperation and peace. Over the last decades, the level of technical knowledge and networks of proponent have grown. The Super-grid also benefits from the potential opportunity of building on existing grids. Barriers stem from the scale of investments needed to experiment, path dependences in established industry and competition from novel smaller scale solutions based on local production, energy storage and smart grid technology. Other barriers originate in the organisational and institutional complexities of international electricity trade, and in the lack of trust at local and global levels, which hinder the development of necessary coordination. The analysis suggests that if the Super-grid is to become part of a future electricity system, the discourse needs to open up, move beyond simplistic ideas of efficiency and ‘technocratic internationalism’, and take into account a broader set of social benefits, risks and trade-offs.

Glenk G., Reichelstein S.

Competing power generation sources have experienced considerable shifts in both their revenue potential and their costs in recent years. Here we introduce the concept of Levelized Profit Margins (LPM) to capture the changing unit economics of both intermittent and dispatchable generation technologies. We apply this framework in the context of the California and Texas wholesale power markets. Our LPM estimates indicate that solar photovoltaic and wind power have both substantially improved their competitive position during the years 2012–2019, primarily due to falling life-cycle costs of production. In California, these gains far outweigh an emerging “cannibalization” effect that results from substantial additions of solar power having made energy less valuable in the middle of the day. As such, intermittent renewables in both states have been approaching or exceeding the break-even value of zero for the estimated LPMs. We also find the competitiveness of natural gas power plants to have either improved in Texas or held steady at negative LPMs in California. For these plants, declining capacity utilization rates have effectively been counterbalanced by a “dispatchability price premium” that reflects the growing market share of intermittent renewables. • Intermittent and dispatchable power sources experience changing costs and revenues • To capture these dynamics, we first introduce the concept of Levelized Profit Margins • We then calibrate the economic model for the California and Texas power markets • Cost declines of wind and solar power far outweigh a growing cannibalization effect • The competitiveness of natural gas power plants has either held steady or improved

Peña J.I., Rodríguez R., Mayoral S.

The decarbonization strategy of the electricity sector relies on renewable energy. However, increasing renewables gives cannibalization and depredation effects. Cannibalization appears when increasing penetration of renewables undermines their own market remuneration. Depredation arises when increased renewable penetration undermines the market remuneration of other technologies. This paper documents cannibalization and depredation effects in the Spanish electricity market from 2014 to 2020. Increases in wind and solar penetration reduce market remuneration of all technologies. With wind, depredation and cannibalization effects are non-linear. Higher solar and wind penetration reduces remuneration volatility to wind, solar, and gas but increases those of coal and nuclear. • Increases in solar and wind penetration reduce market remuneration to all plants. • Increases in wind penetration beyond 30–40% have a non-linear and stronger effect. • Renewable penetration lowers (increases) renewables' (thermals') remuneration volatility. • Cannibalization does not support new investments in renewable energy generation. • The policy recommendation is to base the market remuneration on long-term prices.

Sekar M., Praveen Kumar T.R., Selva Ganesh Kumar M., Vaníčková R., Maroušek J.

• Imposition of restriction on people movement plays a vital role in global air quality concentration levels. • The concentration of major air pollutants was measured during lockdown period and compared with previous years. • There is a significant reduction in Annual monthly average of air pollutants concentration due to impact of COVID-19. • The outbreak of COVID-19 around the globe was assessed. It is well known that pandemics not only change people's social habits but have also changed most activities related to energy consumption, especially industry and transport. Over the past year, a plethora of case studies have been published mapping the environmental impacts in specific locations in terms of changes in wastewater composition, noise, solar radiation and more. However, policymakers are demanding a global perspective and are looking for a synthesis of all these reports that will indicate whether, or to what extent, these changes interact with global climate change. The most urgent question is whether artificially inducing such a pandemic could be justified, given the loss of human life and economic losses. Robust analysis on air pollutants such as PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NOx, SO 2 , CO, O 3 and NH 3 confirmed significant improvement in air quality indicators especially in India and China. The study indicates that key hypotheses can be confirmed or refuted, but further measurements are needed.

López Prol J., Schill W.

The transformation of the electricity sector is a central element of the transition to a decarbonized economy. Conventional generators powered by fossil fuels have to be replaced by variable renewable energy (VRE) sources in combination with electricity storage and other options for providing temporal flexibility. We discuss the market dynamics of increasing VRE penetration and its integration in the electricity system. We describe the merit-order effect (the decline of wholesale electricity prices as VRE penetration increases) and the cannibalization effect (the decline of VRE value as its penetration increases). We further review the role of electricity storage and other flexibility options for integrating variable renewables and how storage can contribute to mitigating the two mentioned effects. We also use a stylized open-source model to provide some graphical intuition on these issues. While relatively high shares of VRE are achievable with moderate amounts of electricity storage, the role of long-duration storage increases as the VRE share approaches 100%.

Olynk Widmar N., Rash K., Bir C., Bir B., Jung J.

Increasing prevalence and scale of natural disasters fuel the need for new approaches to evaluating, and eventually mitigating, their impact. This analysis quantifies and compares online and social media attention to hurricanes and wildfires over time and geographic space. Hurricanes studied included: Michael, Maria, Irma, Harvey, and Florence. Fires studied included: Woolsey, Mendocino, Carr, and Camp. It was hypothesized that total volume of online media content, measured in posts and mentions, varied measurably over the phases of the disasters. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that the anatomy of the disaster, specifically the number and timing/dates, of posts and mentions varied inside versus outside impacted zones/geographies. Social media content, in sheer volume, related to hurricanes was larger than that devoted to fires. A mismatch between the time periods that people post about natural disasters on social media and the times when aid is needed to rebuild was found. Mentions fell rapidly after landfall for hurricanes, and long before fires were officially contained or extinguished. This rapid fall in media attention may leave directly impacted populations without help and support during the rebuilding process. Greater understanding of volume of posts over time, or the anatomy of disasters in online media space, may help government agencies, private industry, and relief organizations understand public attentiveness before, during, and after various types of natural disasters.

Giannakis E., Zittis G.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions coming mainly from fossil fuel combustion for energy use are causing air temperature increases resulting in climate change. This study employs an environmentally extended input–output model to conduct an economy-wide assessment of GHG emissions in the European Union (EU). Model results indicate that the assumed growth of economic activity by 2030 will lead to a large increase in GHG emissions by 89%, assuming no technological change and no additional policy mitigation efforts. The electricity sector and agriculture create the highest direct and indirect GHG emissions per unit of economic output across the 27 EU member states (EU-27); for every 1-million-euro-increase in the final demand for the products and services of the electricity sector and agriculture, 2198 and 1410 additional tons of GHG emit, respectively. Regional climate projections under a low-decarbonisation pathway (RCP8.5), in accordance with our economic analysis, indicate a further increase of regional warming, combined with pronounced changes in the hydrological cycle. Contrariwise, following a strong mitigation pathway (RCP2.6) will result in warming levels lower than 1.5 °C with respect to the 1986–2005 reference period. Our findings reveal the importance of both direct and indirect contribution of economic sectors in the generation of GHG emissions, taking into consideration the size of the sectors and the assumed growth rates. The design and implementation of sectoral emission reduction policies from the perspective of the whole production supply chain can effectively contribute to GHG emission reduction commitments.

Abboud A., Betz M.R.

In this paper, we study the impact of the oil and gas industry on county-level employment and wage earnings across not only the boom, but also the bust cycle. Our paper is among the first to estimate wage and employment impacts of the bust cycle for the U.S. oil and gas industry and directly compare these employment and wage impacts for the boom. We then evaluate spillovers into other sectors in the economy, comparing impacts on tradable and non-tradable industries for three distinct geographic regions and estimate separate models for rural and urban areas. We find variation across geographic context, but in general the oil and gas bust was associated with a significant decrease in overall employment, with the effect most notable in non-tradable industries in rural counties. Finally, we investigate the differential impact of the 2008 financial crisis on labor in producing and non-producing counties. We find that, employment and wages in oil and gas producing counties were impacted by the financial crisis less than non-oil and gas counties and recovery in oil and gas counties started earlier.

Gunfaus M.T., Waisman H.

This commentary places the international climate governance assessment offered in this Special Issue in the broader context of a comprehensive framework for assessing the adequacy of the global response to meet the Paris Agreement long-term goals. It suggests ways to further advance global governance assessments in supporting the dynamic process of progressively strengthening collective ambition and action. It finds that the sectoral systems approach enables the operationalization of multidimensional adequacy assessments. It also identifies the need to further improve the integration of multiple levels of governance and short- and long-term time horizons. Lessons from the discussion on sectoral granularity, multi-scale considerations and short-long term coherence are finally synthetized as guiding principles for the design of key processes and instruments of the Paris Agreement. This leads to highlighting priorities for the design of the Global Stocktake and the further elaboration of the instrument of countries’ Long Term Strategies.

Kamahara Y., Wada J., Kasuya Y.

Existing studies on legislative malapportionment often conceptualize and measure this phenomenon with little regard to intertemporal variations and the malapportionment-generating process (MGP). Our conceptualization leads us to introduce a measure called α -divergence that can identify the vote inequality derived from various stages of MGP. Using an originally created database that covers 440 elections in 112 countries, we decompose the overall degree of malapportionment into three stages: malapportionment that arises at the stages of interstate apportionment, intrastate districting, and allotment of seats to special districts. We also provide analyses that can decompose the demographic and political factors contributing to the trends of the overall degree of malapportionment for selected countries.

Ekins P., Zenghelis D.

The natural science in GEO-6 makes clear that a range and variety of unwelcome outcomes for humanity, with potentially very significant impacts for human health, become increasingly likely if societies maintain their current development paths. This paper assesses what is known about the likely economic implications of either current trends or the transformation to a low-carbon and resource-efficient economy in the years to 2050 for which GEO-6 calls. A key conclusion is that no conventional cost–benefit analysis for either scenario is possible. This is because the final cost of meeting various decarbonisation and resource-management pathways depends on decisions made today in changing behaviour and generating innovation. The inadequacies of conventional modelling approaches generally lead to understating the risks from unmitigated climate change and overstating the costs of a low-carbon transition, by missing out the cumulative gains from path-dependent innovation. This leads to a flawed conclusion as to how to respond to the climate emergency, namely that significant reductions in emissions are prohibitively expensive and, therefore, to be avoided until new, cost-effective technologies are developed. We argue that this is inconsistent with the evidence and counterproductive in serving to delay decarbonisation efforts, thereby increasing its costs. Understanding the processes which drive innovation, change social norms and avoid locking in to carbon- and resource-intensive technologies, infrastructure and behaviours, will help decision makers as they ponder how to respond to the increasingly stark warnings of natural scientists about the deteriorating condition of the natural environment.

Boccard N.

A low carbon electricity generating technology will contribute to the energy transition only if it is able to scale up. From that perspective, we compare nuclear, wind and solar power with respect to the size of a typical power plant, across the criteria of physical scalability, build- ing experience and financial lumpiness. Because size differs by 3 orders of magnitude between these technologies, markedly different findings obtain, providing a convincing rationale for the relative successes and failures of the industries behind each. We conclude that smaller devices such as solar panels allow for more innovation, more financing and thus a faster diffusion. By the same token, we see no end in sight for the problems afflicting nuclear power. We make a modest case for the novel modular concept even though it falls pray to the same essential defects. The tendency toward gigantism afflicting wind power may brings forth the difficulties nuclear power has faced for long.

Li Q., Duan H., Xie M., Kang P., Ma Y., Zhong R., Gao T., Zhong W., Wen B., Bai F., Vuppaladadiyam A.K.

Wind power is being used on a large scale worldwide. While a few studies have employed the life cycle assessment method to examine the economic and environmental trade-offs of wind power, the impacts of wind farm infrastructure—such as civil and electrical works—have not been thoroughly taken into consideration. Thus, it remains difficult to accurately grasp the entire environmental impacts of wind energy systems. In this study, a newly built onshore 40-megawatt (MW) wind farm in China has been selected for conducting life cycle analysis with consideration of the infrastructure. Resource and energy-related inventory data were gathered over the wind farm's life cycle, including the phases of materials and manufacturing, transport, construction and installation, operations, and end-of-life. The results showed that the entire greenhouse gas emissions intensity was 16.4–28.2 gCO2 eq./kWh for the onshore 40 MW wind farm, which is slightly higher than those for nuclear power (10.9–13.9 gCO2 eq./kWh) and hydropower (3.1–3.9 gCO2 eq./kWh). It is almost comparable than photovoltaic power (16.0–40.0 gCO2 eq./kWh), but significantly lower than those for thermal power (810–820 gCO2 eq./kWh) and biomass power (~200 gCO2 eq./kWh). Additionally, life cycle cost analysis indicated that the levelized cost of electricity from wind power was approximately 0.01–0.02 USD/kWh.

Boccard N.

We follow the United Nations Sendai (2015) [1] framework for the reduction of disaster risk to go beyond traditional impactmeasures and compute the Sendai targets for individual risk and property risk. We show that individual risk is “very likely” falling between 1970 and 2019 while property risk is “likely” falling between 1980 and 2019; additionally, the related financial risk, faced by insurers, is increasing over the same period with “virtually certainty”. We underscore the greater burden befalling developing economies over the long run, since individual and property risk are respectively 2 and 3 times larger than in the OECD. Singular assessments for Bangladesh, Switzerland and the USA are used to showmelioration and convergence but also the limits of our global analysis. • The (global) risk of dying in a natural disaster is “very likely” falling. • Global property losses per unit of wealth are “likely” falling. • Global financial losses per unit of wealth are “certainly” rising. • Financial losses amount to 2‰ of Gross National Income (in the long run). • Individual and property risk in developing countries triple the OECD levels.