Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
Susan M. Natali
1
,
Jennifer D. Watts
1
,
Brendan M Rogers
1
,
Stefano Potter
1
,
Sarah M Ludwig
1
,
Anne Katrin Selbmann
2
,
Patrick F. Sullivan
3
,
Tingjun Zhang
4
,
Kyle A Arndt
5
,
Leah Birch
1
,
Mats P. Björkman
6
,
A. Anthony Bloom
7
,
Gerardo Celis
8
,
Torben Christensen
9
,
Casper Tai Christiansen
10
,
R. Commane
11
,
Elisabeth Cooper
12
,
Patrick Crill
13
,
Claudia I. Czimczik
14
,
Sergey Davydov
15
,
Jinyang Du
16
,
Jocelyn E. Egan
17
,
Bo Elberling
18
,
Eugénie S. Euskirchen
19
,
Thomas Friborg
20
,
Hélène Genet
19
,
Mathias Göckede
21
,
Jordan P. Goodrich
5, 22
,
Paul Grogan
23
,
Manuel Helbig
24, 25
,
E. E. Jafarov
26
,
Julie D. Jastrow
27
,
Aram A M Kalhori
5
,
Yong-Won Kim
28
,
John S. Kimball
16
,
Lars Kutzbach
29
,
Mark J. Lara
30
,
KLAUS R. LARSEN
20
,
Bang Yong Lee
31
,
Zhihua Liu
32
,
Michael M. Loranty
33
,
M. Lund
9
,
Massimo Lupascu
34
,
Nima Madani
7
,
Avni Malhotra
35
,
Roser Matamala
27
,
Jack Mcfarland
36
,
A.David McGuire
19
,
Anders Michelsen
37
,
Christina Minions
1
,
Walter C. Oechel
5, 38
,
David Olefeldt
39
,
Frans Parmentier
40, 41
,
Norbert Pirk
40, 41
,
Benjamin Poulter
42
,
William Quinton
43
,
Fereidoun Rezanezhad
44
,
D. Risk
45
,
Torsten Sachs
46
,
Kevin Schaefer
47
,
Niels Martin Schmidt
9
,
Edward A.G Schuur
8
,
Philipp R. Semenchuk
48
,
Gaius Shaver
49
,
Oliver Sonnentag
25
,
Gregory Starr
50
,
Claire C. Treat
51
,
Mark P Waldrop
36
,
Yihui Wang
5
,
Jeffrey Welker
52, 53
,
Christian Wille
46
,
Xiaofeng Xu
5
,
Zhen Zhang
54
,
Qiu-Lin Zhuang
55
,
Donatella Zona
5, 56
1
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, USA
|
7
22
24
School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, USA
|
25
33
Department of Geography, Colgate University, Hamilton, USA
|
36
49
The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, USA
|
51
53
55
Publication type: Journal Article
Publication date: 2019-10-21
scimago Q1
wos Q1
SJR: 8.046
CiteScore: 42.2
Impact factor: 27.1
ISSN: 1758678X, 17586798
PubMed ID:
35069807
Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Abstract
Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions. Winter warming in the Arctic will increase the CO2 flux from soils. A pan-Arctic analysis shows a current loss of 1,662 TgC per year over the winter, exceeding estimated carbon uptake in the growing season; projections suggest a 17% increase under RCP 4.5 and a 41% increase under RCP 8.5 by 2100.
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292
Total citations:
292
Citations from 2024:
114
(39.04%)
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GOST
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Natali S. M. et al. Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region // Nature Climate Change. 2019. Vol. 9. No. 11. pp. 852-857.
GOST all authors (up to 50)
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Natali S. M. et al. Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region // Nature Climate Change. 2019. Vol. 9. No. 11. pp. 852-857.
Cite this
RIS
Copy
TY - JOUR
DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8
TI - Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
T2 - Nature Climate Change
AU - Natali, Susan M.
AU - Watts, Jennifer D.
AU - Rogers, Brendan M
AU - Potter, Stefano
AU - Ludwig, Sarah M
AU - Selbmann, Anne Katrin
AU - Sullivan, Patrick F.
AU - Zhang, Tingjun
AU - Arndt, Kyle A
AU - Birch, Leah
AU - Björkman, Mats P.
AU - Bloom, A. Anthony
AU - Celis, Gerardo
AU - Christensen, Torben
AU - Christiansen, Casper Tai
AU - Commane, R.
AU - Cooper, Elisabeth
AU - Crill, Patrick
AU - Czimczik, Claudia I.
AU - Davydov, Sergey
AU - Du, Jinyang
AU - Egan, Jocelyn E.
AU - Elberling, Bo
AU - Euskirchen, Eugénie S.
AU - Friborg, Thomas
AU - Genet, Hélène
AU - Göckede, Mathias
AU - Goodrich, Jordan P.
AU - Grogan, Paul
AU - Helbig, Manuel
AU - Jafarov, E. E.
AU - Jastrow, Julie D.
AU - Kalhori, Aram A M
AU - Kim, Yong-Won
AU - Kimball, John S.
AU - Kutzbach, Lars
AU - Lara, Mark J.
AU - LARSEN, KLAUS R.
AU - Lee, Bang Yong
AU - Liu, Zhihua
AU - Loranty, Michael M.
AU - Lund, M.
AU - Lupascu, Massimo
AU - Madani, Nima
AU - Malhotra, Avni
AU - Matamala, Roser
AU - Mcfarland, Jack
AU - McGuire, A.David
AU - Michelsen, Anders
AU - Minions, Christina
AU - Oechel, Walter C.
AU - Olefeldt, David
AU - Parmentier, Frans
AU - Pirk, Norbert
AU - Poulter, Benjamin
AU - Quinton, William
AU - Rezanezhad, Fereidoun
AU - Risk, D.
AU - Sachs, Torsten
AU - Schaefer, Kevin
AU - Schmidt, Niels Martin
AU - Schuur, Edward A.G
AU - Semenchuk, Philipp R.
AU - Shaver, Gaius
AU - Sonnentag, Oliver
AU - Starr, Gregory
AU - Treat, Claire C.
AU - Waldrop, Mark P
AU - Wang, Yihui
AU - Welker, Jeffrey
AU - Wille, Christian
AU - Xu, Xiaofeng
AU - Zhang, Zhen
AU - Zhuang, Qiu-Lin
AU - Zona, Donatella
PY - 2019
DA - 2019/10/21
PB - Springer Nature
SP - 852-857
IS - 11
VL - 9
PMID - 35069807
SN - 1758-678X
SN - 1758-6798
ER -
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BibTex (up to 50 authors)
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@article{2019_Natali,
author = {Susan M. Natali and Jennifer D. Watts and Brendan M Rogers and Stefano Potter and Sarah M Ludwig and Anne Katrin Selbmann and Patrick F. Sullivan and Tingjun Zhang and Kyle A Arndt and Leah Birch and Mats P. Björkman and A. Anthony Bloom and Gerardo Celis and Torben Christensen and Casper Tai Christiansen and R. Commane and Elisabeth Cooper and Patrick Crill and Claudia I. Czimczik and Sergey Davydov and Jinyang Du and Jocelyn E. Egan and Bo Elberling and Eugénie S. Euskirchen and Thomas Friborg and Hélène Genet and Mathias Göckede and Jordan P. Goodrich and Paul Grogan and Manuel Helbig and E. E. Jafarov and Julie D. Jastrow and Aram A M Kalhori and Yong-Won Kim and John S. Kimball and Lars Kutzbach and Mark J. Lara and KLAUS R. LARSEN and Bang Yong Lee and Zhihua Liu and Michael M. Loranty and M. Lund and Massimo Lupascu and Nima Madani and Avni Malhotra and Roser Matamala and Jack Mcfarland and A.David McGuire and Anders Michelsen and Christina Minions and others},
title = {Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
year = {2019},
volume = {9},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
month = {oct},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8},
number = {11},
pages = {852--857},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8}
}
Cite this
MLA
Copy
Natali, Susan M., et al. “Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region.” Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, no. 11, Oct. 2019, pp. 852-857. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8.