Nature

, volume 608 , issue 7921 , pages 80-86

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Heidi Kreibich ¹

Anne F. Van Loon ²

B. Merz ^{1, 3}

P. Ward ²

Maurizio Mazzoleni ²

Nivedita Sairam ¹

Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu ⁴

Svetlana Agafonova ⁵

Amir AghaKouchak ⁶

Hafzullah Aksoy ⁷

C. Alvarez-Garreton ^{8, 9}

Blanca Aznar ¹⁰

Laila Balkhi ¹¹

Marlies Holkje Barendrecht ²

Sylvain Biancamaria ¹²

Liduin Bos Burgering ¹³

C. R. Bradley ¹⁴

Yus Budiyono ¹⁵

W. Buytaert ¹⁶

Lucinda Capewell ¹⁴

Hayley Carlson ¹¹

Hafzullah Aksoy ^{17, 18, 19}

Anaïs Couasnon ²

Gemma Coxon ^{20, 21}

Manolis G. Grillakis ²²

Marleen C. de Ruiter ²

Claire Delus ²³

Mathilde Erfurt ¹⁹

Giuseppe Esposito ²⁴

Didier François ²³

Frédéric Frappart ²⁵

Jim Freer ^{20, 21, 26}

Natalia A. Frolova ⁵

A. K. Gain ^{27, 28}

Manolis Grillakis ²⁹

Jordi Oriol Grima ¹⁰

Diego A Guzmán ³⁰

Laurie S. Huning ^{6, 31}

Monica Ionita ^{32, 33, 34}

Maksim Kharlamov ^{5, 35}

Dao Nguyen Khoi ³⁶

Natalie Kieboom ³⁷

M. B. Kireeva ⁵

Aris Koutroulis ³⁸

W. Lavado ³⁹

Hong-Yi Li ⁴

Maria Carmen Llasat ^{40, 41}

D.M.J Macdonald ⁴²

Johanna Mård ^{43, 44}

Hannah Mathew Richards ³⁷

A. A. McKenzie ⁴²

Alfonso Mejia ⁴⁵

Eduardo Mario Mendiondo ⁴⁶

Marjolein Mens ⁴⁷

Shifteh Mobini ^{48, 49}

Guilherme Samprogna Mohor ⁵⁰

Viorica Nagavciuc ^{32, 34}

Thanh Ngo-Duc ⁵¹

Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh ⁵²

Pham Thi Thao Nhi ³⁶

O. Petrucci ²⁴

Hong-Quan Nguyen ^{52, 53}

P. Quintana-Seguí ⁵⁴

Saman Razavi ^{11, 55, 56}

Elena Ridolfi ⁵⁷

Jannik Riegel ⁵⁸

Md Shibly Sadik ⁵⁹

Elisa Savelli ^{43, 44}

Alexey Sazonov ^{5, 35}

Sanjib Sharma ⁶⁰

J. Sörensen ⁴⁹

Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza ⁴⁶

Kerstin Stahl ¹⁹

Max Steinhausen ¹

M. Stoelzle ¹⁹

Wiwiana Szalińska ⁶¹

Qiuhong Tang ⁶²

Fuqiang Tian ⁶³

Tamara Tokarczyk ⁶¹

C. Tovar ⁶⁴

T V T Tran ⁵²

Marjolein H J Van Huijgevoort ⁶⁵

Michelle T. H. van Vliet ⁶⁶

S. Vorogushyn ¹

Thorsten Wagener ^{21, 50, 67}

Yueling Wang ⁶²

Doris E. Wendt ⁶⁷

Elliot Wickham ⁶⁸

Long Yang ⁶⁹

Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini ^{8, 9}

Günter Blöschl ⁷⁰

Giuliano Di Baldassarre ^{43, 44, 71}

Hide authors affiliations Show authors affiliations: 71 affiliations

GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany |

Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands |

Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Division of Hydrology and River basin management, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany |

⁴

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, USA |

⁵

Lomonosov Moscow state University, Moscow, Russia |

⁶

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE, USA |

⁷

Department of Civil engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey |

⁸

Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Santiago, Chile |

⁹

Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile |

¹⁰

Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua S.A, Barcelona, Spain |

¹¹

Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, CANADA |

¹²

LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France |

¹³

Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands |

¹⁴

School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK |

¹⁵

Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Jakarta, Indonesia |

¹⁶

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK |

¹⁷

Department of Civil Engineering, Beykent University, Istanbul, Turkey |

¹⁸

Graduate School, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey |

¹⁹

Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany |

²⁰

Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK |

²¹

Cabot institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK |

²²

Department of Agriculture, Hellenic Mediterranean University, Iraklio, Greece |

²³

Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, Metz, France |

²⁴

CNR-IRPI, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, Cosenza, Italy |

²⁵

INRAE, Bordeaux Sciences Agro, UMR ISPA, Villenave dʼOrnon, France |

²⁶

University of Saskatchewan, Centre for Hydrology, Canmore, Canada |

²⁷

Environmental Policy and Planning Group, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA |

²⁸

Department of Economics, CA’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy |

²⁹

Lab of Geophysical-Remote Sensing & Archaeo-Environment, Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Rethymno, Greece |

³⁰

Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bucaramanga, Colombia |

³¹

California State University, Long Beach, USA |

³²

Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Palaeoclimate Dynamics Group, Bremerhaven, Germany |

³³

Emil Racovita Institute of Speleology, Romanian Academy, Cluj-Napoca, Romania |

³⁴

Forest Biometrics Laboratory, Faculty of Forestry, Ștefan cel Mare University, Suceava, Romania |

³⁵

Water Problem Institute Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia |

³⁶

Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam |

³⁷

Environment Agency, Bristol, UK |

³⁸

School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece |

³⁹

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú, Lima, Peru |

⁴⁰

Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain |

⁴¹

Water Research Institute, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain |

⁴²

British Geological Survey, Wallingford, UK |

⁴³

Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden |

⁴⁴

Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden |

⁴⁵

Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, USA |

⁴⁶

Escola de Engenharia de Sao Carlos, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil |

⁴⁷

Department of Water Resources & Delta Management, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands |

⁴⁸

Trelleborg municipality, Trelleborg, Sweden |

⁴⁹

Department of Water Resources Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden |

⁵⁰

University of Potsdam, Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, Potsdam, Germany |

⁵¹

University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam |

⁵²

Institute for Environment and Resources, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam |

⁵³

Institute for Circular Economy Development, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam |

⁵⁴

Observatori de l’Ebre, Ramon Llull University – CSIC, Roquetes, Spain |

⁵⁵

School of Environment and sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada |

⁵⁶

Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada |

⁵⁷

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy |

⁵⁸

University of Applied Sciences, Magdeburg, Germany |

⁵⁹

Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, Dhaka, Bangladesh |

⁶⁰

Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, USA |

⁶¹

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute, Warsaw, Poland |

⁶²

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China |

⁶³

Department of Hydraulic engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China |

⁶⁴

Royal Botanical Gardens Kew, London, UK |

⁶⁵

KWR Water Research Institute, Nieuwegein, the Netherlands |

⁶⁶

Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands |

⁶⁷

Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK |

⁶⁸

School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, USA |

⁶⁹

School of geography and ocean science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China |

⁷⁰

Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria |

⁷¹

Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, IHE Delft, Delft, the Netherlands |

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2022-08-03

Springer Nature

Nature

scimago Q1

wos Q1

SJR: 18.288

CiteScore: 78.1

Impact factor: 48.5

ISSN: 00280836, 14764687

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

Copy DOI

PubMed ID: 35922501

Multidisciplinary

Abstract

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally^1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing³. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data^4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change³.

Found

2 citations

Chen Deliang

171 publications, 871 citations, 7 reviews

h-index: 18

University of Gothenburg

Tsinghua University

Dongguan University of Technology

Zhengzhou University

1 citation

Agafonova Svetlana

🤝

PhD in Geography

23 publications, 525 citations

h-index: 10

Lomonosov Moscow State University

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Russian Academy of Sciences

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Kreibich H. et al. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management // Nature. 2022. Vol. 608. No. 7921. pp. 80-86.

GOST all authors (up to 50) Copy

Kreibich H. et al. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management // Nature. 2022. Vol. 608. No. 7921. pp. 80-86.

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BibTex (up to 50 authors) Copy

@article{2022_Kreibich,

author = {Heidi Kreibich and Anne F. Van Loon and B. Merz and P. Ward and Maurizio Mazzoleni and Nivedita Sairam and Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu and Svetlana Agafonova and Amir AghaKouchak and Hafzullah Aksoy and C. Alvarez-Garreton and Blanca Aznar and Laila Balkhi and Marlies Holkje Barendrecht and Sylvain Biancamaria and Liduin Bos Burgering and C. R. Bradley and Yus Budiyono and W. Buytaert and Lucinda Capewell and Hayley Carlson and Hafzullah Aksoy and Anaïs Couasnon and Gemma Coxon and Manolis G. Grillakis and Marleen C. de Ruiter and Claire Delus and Mathilde Erfurt and Giuseppe Esposito and Didier François and Frédéric Frappart and Jim Freer and Natalia A. Frolova and A. K. Gain and Manolis Grillakis and Jordi Oriol Grima and Diego A Guzmán and Laurie S. Huning and Monica Ionita and Maksim Kharlamov and Dao Nguyen Khoi and Natalie Kieboom and M. B. Kireeva and Aris Koutroulis and W. Lavado and Hong-Yi Li and Maria Carmen Llasat and D.M.J Macdonald and Johanna Mård and Hannah Mathew Richards and others},

title = {The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management},

journal = {Nature},

year = {2022},

volume = {608},

publisher = {Springer Nature},

month = {aug},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04917-5},

number = {7921},

pages = {80--86},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5}

}

MLA

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MLA Copy

Kreibich, Heidi, et al. “The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management.” Nature, vol. 608, no. 7921, Aug. 2022, pp. 80-86. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04917-5.

Publisher

Springer Nature

Journal

Nature

scimago Q1

wos Q1

SJR

18.288

CiteScore

78.1

Impact factor

48.5

ISSN

00280836 (Print)

14764687 (Electronic)

Labs

Regional Hydrology Lab

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