Permafrost thaw-related infrastructure damage costs in Alaska are projected to double under medium and high emission scenarios

Infrastructure across the circumpolar Arctic is exposed to permafrost thaw hazards caused by global warming and human activity, creating the risk of damage and economic losses. However, losses are underestimated in existing literature due to incomprehensive infrastructure maps. Here, we mapped infrastructure from 0.5 m resolution satellite imagery of 285 Alaskan communities with a deep learning detection model. Combined with OpenStreetMap, we mapped a statewide Alaskan building footprint of 53 M m2 and a road network of 50,477 km. With deep learning, we expanded the OpenStreetMap building footprint by 47% statewide and 86% on discontinuous and continuous permafrost. Doubling the amount found in existing literature by using our improved map, we estimated that building and road losses due to permafrost thaw could cost Alaska $37B to $51B under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Finally, we highlight shortcomings in U.S. national risk assessments, which do not account for Alaskan permafrost hazards. In Alaska, building and road damages due to permafrost thaw hazards could cost 37 to 51 billion US dollars by mid-century under medium and high emission scenarios, according to an analysis that uses satellite infrastructure data and a deep learning model.