Ecological Niche Modeling of Galinsoga Ruiz et Pav. Species in the Native and Caucasian Part of the Invasive Ranges

Adaptations of G. quadriradiata and G. parviflora developed in the tropical climate of the Mexican mountain region determine the nature and extent of the predicted distribution of these species in the Caucasus. The complex factor of humidity is the main factor determining the potential distribution of G. quadriradiata and G. parviflora in the Caucasus (82 and 48% of the contribution in the Maxent models). Temperature and orographic ENVIREM predictors also play a significant role in the distribution of G. parviflora. The center of the predicted range of G. quadriradiata is located in the humid climate of the Black Sea coast; for G. parviflora, it is located in the relatively moist foothill and mid-mountain regions of the Western Caucasus. The lowest probability of finding both species is predicted in the lowland (steppe) regions and in the arid climate of the Eastern Caucasus. The invasive potential of G. quadriradiata and G. parviflora in the Caucasus is similar: it includes a high degree of overlapping (Schoener’s D = 0.76) and the same width (Levins’ B = 0.91 and 0.92) of ecological niches and their visual overlapping in the orthogonal space of the analyzed ecological factors. Differences in the potential spatial distribution of the species in the Caucasus are associated with their biological characteristics (greater or lesser sensitivity to water and temperature regimes and orographic factors).